Europa League predictions
Model probabilities for every upcoming Europa League match, updated hourly and frozen at kick-off. So far the model called 47% of 17 results correctly.
Every match since July 2023, each predicted from earlier results only
Upcoming matches
No scheduled matches in the next eight days. The next round appears here about a week before it is played.
How we predict the Europa League
Our league model rates teams inside one league, so it cannot compare clubs from different countries. The European cups use a separate model: it rates clubs over all their matches and adds a strength rating for each domestic league, learnt only from results in European competition.
In a test on 850 Europa League matches it picked the right result 55.2% of the time, against 47.6% for always backing the home team. We have no past bookmaker prices, so this test does not show that the model beats the market.
Know its limits. Some clubs have few matches in our data, and their leagues are not rated individually, so their chances are less reliable. Extra time and penalties are not modelled: predictions are for the result after 90 minutes. Cup results are counted apart from our league record. Not betting advice, 18+.
Recent predictions and results
Ararat-Armenia
Sunderland
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Celje
OFI
Celtic
Beşiktaş
Celta Vigo
Union Saint-Gilloise
Benfica
Lech Poznań
Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
AZ
Juventus
NECOmonia Nicosia
Viktoria Plzeň
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia BiałystokEuropa League league phase table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  AFC Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencváros | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Olympique Lyonnais | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +0 | 4 |
| 23 |  Sparta Prague | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Viktoria Plzeň | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrøm | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
From the results in our data, ordered by points, goal difference and goals scored. UEFA uses more tie-breakers, so close positions may differ from the official table.