Premier League predictions

Model probabilities for every upcoming Premier League match (England), updated hourly.

43%home wins
25%draws
32%away wins
2.98goals per match

1,210 league matches, July 2023 - October 2026

Upcoming matches

Ipswich TownNottingham ForestTomorrow ·
Ipswich TownMatch result
38%
2.66Fair odds
Analysis
Aston VillaManchester CitySat 24 Oct ·
Manchester CityMatch result
53%
1.90Fair odds
Analysis
ArsenalEvertonSat 24 Oct ·
ArsenalMatch result
70%
1.43Fair odds
Analysis
Coventry CityFulhamSat 24 Oct ·
Coventry CityMatch result
38%
2.64Fair odds
Analysis
ChelseaTottenham HotspurSat 24 Oct ·
ChelseaMatch result
57%
1.75Fair odds
Analysis
Manchester UnitedAFC BournemouthSun 25 Oct ·
Manchester UnitedMatch result
49%
2.03Fair odds
Analysis
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedSun 25 Oct ·
Crystal PalaceMatch result
41%
2.46Fair odds
Analysis
Hull CityBrentfordSun 25 Oct ·
BrentfordMatch result
37%
2.69Fair odds
Analysis
LiverpoolBrighton & Hove AlbionSun 25 Oct ·
LiverpoolMatch result
40%
2.48Fair odds
Analysis
SunderlandLeeds UnitedSun 25 Oct ·
SunderlandMatch result
36%
2.81Fair odds
Analysis

How to read Premier League predictions

Our Premier League predictions are built on 1,210 matches from July 2023 to October 2026. Home wins account for 43% of outcomes, which is slightly below the 18-league average of 45%. This means home advantage is strong, but not the dominant force it appears in some other competitions. Away wins occur in 32% of matches, ranking joint second across our dataset, which shows that visitors remain competitive contenders rather than underdogs.

Draws happen in 25% of fixtures, matching the global average exactly. Regarding goals, the league averages 2.98 per match, ranking fourth among the 18 leagues we cover. Consequently, the Premier League over 2.5 goals market hits in 59% of games, well above the 53% average. Similarly, both teams scored in 58% of matches, again fourth. These figures indicate that attacking play is a regular feature, although three of the leagues we cover score more.

When reviewing our Premier League betting tips, keep these baselines in mind. The data shows a league where home form matters, but away strength is genuine, and goals are frequent but not exceptional. The 25% draw rate means that neither side is a safe default. Our Premier League tips today reflect these probabilities without exaggeration. Use these figures to gauge value rather than expecting guaranteed outcomes.

Over 2.5 goals: 59% of matches · both teams scored: 58%. Probabilities come from our model, see how it works. Not betting advice, 18+.

Recent predictions and results

Tottenham HotspurCoventry CityMon 19 Oct ·
Tottenham HotspurMatch result
42%
3-1Score
Correct
Analysis

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Manchester City7700+1221
2Arsenal7601+618
3Brighton & Hove Albion7511+1816
4Chelsea7412+413
5Liverpool7331+112
6Brentford7241+510
7Leeds United7241+310
8Everton7241+110
9Hull City7232+19
10Ipswich Town7304-49
11Newcastle United7223-48
12Aston Villa7223-48
13Manchester United7142+07
14Crystal Palace7214-87
15AFC Bournemouth7133-46
16Tottenham Hotspur7133-46
17Coventry City7205-86
18Fulham7124-35
19Nottingham Forest7124-45
20Sunderland7115-84

Current season, from the results in our data.