Champions League predictions
Model probabilities for every upcoming Champions League match, updated hourly and frozen at kick-off.
Every match since July 2023, each predicted from earlier results only
Upcoming matches
No scheduled matches in the next eight days. The next round appears here about a week before it is played.
How we predict the Champions League
Our league model rates teams inside one league, so it cannot compare clubs from different countries. The European cups use a separate model: it rates clubs over all their matches and adds a strength rating for each domestic league, learnt only from results in European competition.
In a test on 933 Champions League matches it picked the right result 55.4% of the time, against 47.4% for always backing the home team. We have no past bookmaker prices, so this test does not show that the model beats the market.
Know its limits. Some clubs have few matches in our data, and their leagues are not rated individually, so their chances are less reliable. Extra time and penalties are not modelled: predictions are for the result after 90 minutes. Cup results are counted apart from our league record. Not betting advice, 18+.
Champions League league phase table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSG | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern Munich | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter Milan | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |  LASK | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +0 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |  Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +0 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø / Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |  Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FK | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Prague | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
From the results in our data, ordered by points, goal difference and goals scored. UEFA uses more tie-breakers, so close positions may differ from the official table.