Prediction accuracy
Every prediction on FootyMath is stored before kick-off and never changed afterwards. This page counts how often the most likely outcome was the actual result.
Since launch
Model v2 replaced v1 on 22 October 2026. Predictions made by v1 stay as they were and are counted under v1.
| League | Matches | Correct |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Pro League | 2 | 50% |
Latest checked predictions
Al Fateh
Al Shabab
Al Hazem
Al FayhaThree-season backtest (model v2)
We tested the current model on 21,272 league matches of the 18 leagues on this site, played between July 2023 and October 2026. Each match was predicted using only the matches played before it, the way the site works live.
Are the percentages honest?
A good model is not only right often, its probabilities mean what they say. When the model gave the favourite about 69%, the favourite won 69% of the time:
| Model's favourite at | Matches | Model said | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45% | 7,766 | 40.3% | 39.8% |
| 45-55% | 6,317 | 49.7% | 48.4% |
| 55-65% | 3,959 | 59.4% | 58.3% |
| 65-75% | 2,029 | 69.4% | 69.4% |
| 75% and over | 1,201 | 81.4% | 80.6% |
When the model was at least 60% sure, it was right 69.5% of the time (4,870 matches); at 70% or more, 78.0% (2,036 matches).