Conference League predictions
Model probabilities for every upcoming Conference League match, updated hourly and frozen at kick-off. So far the model called 50% of 18 results correctly.
Every match since July 2023, each predicted from earlier results only
Upcoming matches
No scheduled matches in the next eight days. The next round appears here about a week before it is played.
How we predict the Conference League
Our league model rates teams inside one league, so it cannot compare clubs from different countries. The European cups use a separate model: it rates clubs over all their matches and adds a strength rating for each domestic league, learnt only from results in European competition.
In a test on 1,527 Conference League matches it picked the right result 50.0% of the time, against 45.2% for always backing the home team. By stage in the Conference League: 56.3% in the group and league phase (348 matches), 49.0% in the qualifying rounds (1,044) and only 41.5% in the knockouts (135). We have no past bookmaker prices, so this test does not show that the model beats the market.
Know its limits. Some clubs have few matches in our data, and their leagues are not rated individually, so their chances are less reliable. Extra time and penalties are not modelled: predictions are for the result after 90 minutes. Cup results are counted apart from our league record. Not betting advice, 18+.
Recent predictions and results
Getafe
Brighton & Hove Albion
CopenhagenIberia 1999
Universitatea Craiova
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Twente
Pafos
Sint-Truiden
Brann
Riga
Jablonec
PanathinaikosCSKA Sofia
Monaco
Nordsjælland
Lugano
Kauno Žalgiris
Trabzonspor
Freiburg
FC Thun
Hearts
Red Star BelgradeInter Club d'EscaldesConference League league phase table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjällby | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | Sint-Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Red Star Belgrade | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 4 |
| 17 |  Sporting Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0 | 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  AGF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 | Nordsjælland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | Hearts | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS Kuopio | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
From the results in our data, ordered by points, goal difference and goals scored. UEFA uses more tie-breakers, so close positions may differ from the official table.