Port Vale vs Rochdale prediction

Match preview

Port Vale have the edge at 60%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Rochdale at 15%.

At home this season Port Vale average 2.20 points and 0.8 goals per game, conceding 0.2. Away from home Rochdale take 0.83 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Port Vale manage 4.4 per home game and Rochdale 2.5 per away game.

Port Vale sit 23rd in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 9th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.

Rochdale are 17th in the table while the model ranks them only 24th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

Expected goals from the model: Port Vale 1.57, Rochdale 0.71. The single most likely score is 1-0 (16%), and the chance of three or more goals is 40%.

In their last 2 league meetings Rochdale won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

• 1-016%
• 2-013%
• 1-111%
• 0-010%
• 2-19%

Port Vale form

• Lat York City0-22026-10-24
• Dat Gillingham1-12026-10-20
• Wvs Chesterfield1-02026-10-17
• Wvs Grimsby Town1-02026-10-10
• Lat Walsall0-22026-09-19

Rochdale form

• Lvs Accrington Stanley0-52026-10-24
• Dvs Grimsby Town2-22026-10-20
• Lat Crewe Alexandra2-32026-10-17
• Dat Tranmere Rovers1-12026-10-10
• Wvs Swindon Town1-02026-10-03