Derby County predictions
Model probabilities for the next Derby County match, every past prediction checked against the result, and their season in numbers.
No scheduled matches in the next eight days.
Past Derby County predictions
Full history ›Stored before kick-off and never changed. A percentage appears here from 10 matches; so far there are 4.
Derby County
Bolton WanderersDerby County
Norwich City
MillwallDerby County
Sheffield UnitedDerby CountyDerby County in the backtest
July 2023 to October 2026
We ran the current model over Derby County league matches, predicting each one only from the matches played before it.
| Season (July to June) | Matches | Right result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 11 | 2 of 11 (18%) |
| 2025-26 | 46 | 22 of 46 (48%) |
| 2024-25 | 46 | 22 of 46 (48%) |
| 2023-24 | 46 | 29 of 46 (63%) |
Calculated after the fact, so this is not part of the live record. A high figure can simply mean this team's results are easier to predict. Across all 21,272 matches the model named the right result 50.9% of the time; see accuracy.
Derby County this season
League matches in our data
| All | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 8 | 7 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.88 | 2.14 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 0% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 71% |
- The model rates their attack 18th and their defence 20th in the league.
Derby County form
- Wvs Bolton Wanderers3-12026-11-06
- Lvs Norwich City0-42026-11-03
- Lat Millwall1-42026-10-31
- Dat Sheffield United1-12026-10-24
- Lvs Stoke City0-12026-10-17
Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Not betting advice, 18+. See how it works and the track record.