Sheffield United vs Derby County prediction

England · Championship · 24 October 2026

Sheffield United11th · 15 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Derby County23rd · 6 pts
Sheffield UnitedDrawDerby County
Our predictionSheffield United to winLean
53%Probability
1.88Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.59-1.06Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Sheffield United53%1.88
  • Draw25%4.03
  • Derby County22%4.54

Double chance

  • Sheffield United or draw78%1.28
  • Sheffield United or Derby County75%1.33
  • Draw or Derby County47%2.14

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.02
  • Under 2.550%1.98

Both teams to score

  • Yes52%1.93
  • No48%2.08

Match preview

Sheffield United have the edge at 53%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Derby County at 22%.

Expected goals from the model: Sheffield United 1.59, Derby County 1.06. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Sheffield United have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (WLWLL).

Derby County have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDDL).

In the table Sheffield United are 11th with 15 points and Derby County 23rd with 6.

In their last 5 league meetings Sheffield United won 3, Derby County won 2 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-011%
  • 2-19%
  • 2-09%
  • 0-18%

Sheffield United form

LLWLW
  • Wat Bristol City1-02026-10-17
  • Lat Portsmouth2-32026-10-14
  • Wvs Lincoln City3-02026-10-10
  • Lat Stoke City1-22026-09-19
  • Lvs Wolverhampton Wanderers0-12026-09-13

Derby County form

LDDLL
  • Lvs Stoke City0-12026-10-17
  • Lat Queens Park Rangers1-42026-10-14
  • Dvs Wrexham1-12026-10-10
  • Dat Burnley1-12026-09-19
  • Lvs Birmingham City1-22026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-05-02Derby County 1-2 Sheffield United
  • 2025-11-01Sheffield United 1-3 Derby County
  • 2025-02-01Derby County 0-1 Sheffield United
  • 2024-09-21Sheffield United 1-0 Derby County
  • 2022-01-15Derby County 2-0 Sheffield United

More Championship predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.