Cardiff City vs Birmingham City prediction

England · Championship · 24 October 2026

Cardiff City19th · 11 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Birmingham City5th · 20 pts
Cardiff CityDrawBirmingham City
Our predictionBirmingham City to winOpen game
39%Probability
2.56Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.53-1.69Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Cardiff City36%2.80
  • Draw25%3.97
  • Birmingham City39%2.56

Double chance

  • Cardiff City or draw61%1.64
  • Cardiff City or Birmingham City75%1.34
  • Draw or Birmingham City64%1.56

Goals

  • Over 2.562%1.60
  • Under 2.538%2.66

Both teams to score

  • Yes64%1.57
  • No36%2.76

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Cardiff City 36%, draw 25%, Birmingham City 39%.

Expected goals from the model: Cardiff City 1.53, Birmingham City 1.69. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.

Cardiff City have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (DWLWL).

Birmingham City have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWWDW).

In the table Cardiff City are 19th with 11 points and Birmingham City 5th with 20.

In their last 5 league meetings Cardiff City won 3, Birmingham City won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 1-29%
  • 2-18%
  • 0-17%
  • 2-27%

Cardiff City form

LWLWD
  • Dat Middlesbrough2-22026-10-17
  • Wvs Watford5-12026-10-13
  • Lat Blackburn Rovers1-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Charlton Athletic3-12026-09-19
  • Lat Bolton Wanderers0-12026-09-12

Birmingham City form

WDWWW
  • Wvs Queens Park Rangers3-02026-10-17
  • Wvs Preston North End4-02026-10-13
  • Wat West Bromwich Albion1-02026-10-10
  • Dvs Middlesbrough2-22026-09-19
  • Wat Derby County2-12026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2024-04-10Birmingham City 0-1 Cardiff City
  • 2023-12-13Cardiff City 0-1 Birmingham City
  • 2023-02-14Birmingham City 0-2 Cardiff City
  • 2022-08-13Cardiff City 1-0 Birmingham City
  • 2022-04-30Cardiff City 1-1 Birmingham City

More Championship predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.