Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough prediction

England · Championship · 23 October 2026

Bolton Wanderers15th · 14 pts
Fri 23 Oct
Middlesbrough3rd · 22 pts
Bolton WanderersDrawMiddlesbrough
Our predictionMiddlesbrough to winOpen game
36%Probability
2.75Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.33-1.40Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Bolton Wanderers36%2.77
  • Draw28%3.63
  • Middlesbrough36%2.75

Double chance

  • Bolton Wanderers or draw64%1.57
  • Bolton Wanderers or Middlesbrough72%1.38
  • Draw or Middlesbrough64%1.56

Goals

  • Over 2.551%1.95
  • Under 2.549%2.05

Both teams to score

  • Yes55%1.81
  • No45%2.23

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Bolton Wanderers 36%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 36%.

Expected goals from the model: Bolton Wanderers 1.33, Middlesbrough 1.40. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 51%.

Bolton Wanderers have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWLWW).

Middlesbrough have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (DWWDD).

In the table Bolton Wanderers are 15th with 14 points and Middlesbrough 3rd with 22.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 0-19%
  • 1-09%
  • 1-28%
  • 2-18%

Bolton Wanderers form

WWLWD
  • Dat Southampton0-02026-10-17
  • Wat Wolverhampton Wanderers3-12026-10-13
  • Lvs Stoke City1-22026-10-10
  • Wat Norwich City4-32026-09-20
  • Wvs Cardiff City1-02026-09-12

Middlesbrough form

DDWWD
  • Dvs Cardiff City2-22026-10-17
  • Wat Stoke City3-22026-10-13
  • Wvs Wolverhampton Wanderers1-02026-10-10
  • Dat Birmingham City2-22026-09-19
  • Dvs Millwall2-22026-09-15

Head to head

  • No meetings in our data since 2020.

More Championship predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.