Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Derby County34%2.94
- Draw26%3.87
- Bolton Wanderers40%2.49
Double chance
- Derby County or draw60%1.67
- Derby County or Bolton Wanderers74%1.35
- Draw or Bolton Wanderers66%1.52
Goals
- Over 2.558%1.71
- Under 2.542%2.40
Both teams to score
- Yes61%1.65
- No39%2.54
Match in numbers
This season, Derby County at home and Bolton Wanderers away
| Derby County (home) | Bolton Wanderers (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Points per game | 0.29 | 1.57 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.57 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.3 | 3.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% |
- Derby County have gone 10 league matches without a win.
- Derby County: 23rd in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 20th in the league.
- Bolton Wanderers: 17th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 21st in the league.
- Our predictions for Derby County matches: 2 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Bolton Wanderers matches: 2 of 4 correct.
Match preview
An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Derby County 34%, draw 26%, Bolton Wanderers 40%.
At home this season Derby County average 0.29 points and 0.6 goals per game, conceding 2.0. Away from home Bolton Wanderers take 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Derby County manage 3.3 per home game and Bolton Wanderers 4.2 per away game.
Form lines: Derby County have gone 10 league matches without a win.
Expected goals from the model: Derby County 1.49, Bolton Wanderers 1.54. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 58%.
In their last 4 league meetings Derby County won 2, Bolton Wanderers won 1 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-29%
- 2-18%
- 0-18%
- 1-07%
Derby County form
- Lvs Norwich City0-42026-11-03
- Lat Millwall1-42026-10-31
- Dat Sheffield United1-12026-10-24
- Lvs Stoke City0-12026-10-17
- Lat Queens Park Rangers1-42026-10-14
Bolton Wanderers form
- Wat Charlton Athletic1-02026-11-03
- Lvs Bristol City2-32026-10-31
- Lvs Middlesbrough1-52026-10-23
- Dat Southampton0-02026-10-17
- Wat Wolverhampton Wanderers3-12026-10-13
Head to head
- 2024-03-16Derby County 1-0 Bolton Wanderers
- 2023-09-02Bolton Wanderers 2-1 Derby County
- 2023-01-21Derby County 2-1 Bolton Wanderers
- 2022-12-27Bolton Wanderers 0-0 Derby County
Prediction made 2026-11-06 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.