Derby County vs Norwich City prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Derby County33%3.02
- Draw27%3.75
- Norwich City40%2.49
Double chance
- Derby County or draw60%1.67
- Derby County or Norwich City73%1.36
- Draw or Norwich City67%1.50
Goals
- Over 2.555%1.80
- Under 2.545%2.24
Both teams to score
- Yes58%1.72
- No42%2.39
Match in numbers
This season, Derby County at home and Norwich City away
| Derby County (home) | Norwich City (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
- Derby County have gone 9 league matches without a win.
- Derby County: 23rd in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 20th in the league.
- Norwich City: 15th in the table; the model rates their attack 6th and their defence 12th in the league.
- Our predictions for Derby County matches: 2 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Norwich City matches: 3 of 4 correct.
Match preview
Hard to call. The model spreads it 33% for Derby County, 27% for the draw and 40% for Norwich City.
At home this season Derby County average 0.33 points and 0.7 goals per game, conceding 1.7. Away from home Norwich City take 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 3.5 per game for Derby County at home and 5.2 for Norwich City on the road.
Current runs: Derby County have gone 9 league matches without a win.
Norwich City sit 15th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 6th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
The model expects 1.36 goals from Derby County and 1.54 from Norwich City; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%, over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 58%.
In their last 5 league meetings Derby County won 1, Norwich City won 3 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-29%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
- 1-08%
Derby County form
- Lat Millwall1-42026-10-31
- Dat Sheffield United1-12026-10-24
- Lvs Stoke City0-12026-10-17
- Lat Queens Park Rangers1-42026-10-14
- Dvs Wrexham1-12026-10-10
Norwich City form
- Wvs Watford3-22026-10-31
- Wat Charlton Athletic3-12026-10-24
- Lvs Portsmouth0-12026-10-17
- Lvs Southampton0-12026-10-14
- Lat Swansea City1-22026-10-10
Head to head
- 2026-04-21Norwich City 2-1 Derby County
- 2025-10-21Derby County 1-0 Norwich City
- 2025-02-08Norwich City 1-1 Derby County
- 2024-09-28Derby County 2-3 Norwich City
- 2021-04-10Derby County 0-1 Norwich City
Prediction made 2026-11-03 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.