Millwall vs Derby County prediction

Match preview

A slight lean towards Millwall (58%), though Derby County win 19% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 24%.

At home this season Millwall average 1.33 points and 1.8 goals per game, conceding 1.3. Away from home Derby County take 0.80 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 4.8 per game for Millwall at home and 3.8 for Derby County on the road.

Current runs: Derby County have gone 7 league matches without a win.

Millwall sit 12th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 6th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.

The model expects 1.60 goals from Millwall and 0.95 from Derby County; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13%, over 2.5 goals 47% and both teams to score 49%.

In their last 5 league meetings Millwall won 3 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

• 1-013%
• 1-112%
• 2-010%
• 2-110%
• 0-18%

Millwall form

• Dvs Lincoln City2-22026-10-17
• Lvs Swansea City0-12026-10-13
• Wat Preston North End1-02026-10-10
• Dvs West Ham United2-22026-09-19
• Dat Middlesbrough2-22026-09-15

Derby County form

• Lvs Stoke City0-12026-10-17
• Lat Queens Park Rangers1-42026-10-14
• Dvs Wrexham1-12026-10-10
• Dat Burnley1-12026-09-19
• Lvs Birmingham City1-22026-09-12