Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Oxford United vs Reading prediction

England · League One · 04 November 2026

Oxford United4th · 23 pts
2 - 0Full time
Reading6th · 22 pts
Oxford UnitedDrawReading
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Oxford United to win (51%)
Our predictionOxford United to winLean
51%Probability
1.95Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.79-1.10Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Oxford United51%1.95
  • Draw25%3.94
  • Reading23%4.29

Double chance

  • Oxford United or draw77%1.30
  • Oxford United or Reading75%1.34
  • Draw or Reading49%2.05

Goals

  • Over 2.555%1.81
  • Under 2.545%2.24

Both teams to score

  • Yes55%1.80
  • No45%2.25

Match in numbers

This season, Oxford United at home and Reading away

Oxford United (home)Reading (away)
Matches66
Points per game2.001.00
Goals scored per game1.501.33
Goals conceded per game0.671.00
Shots on target per game4.75.0
Shots on target conceded3.23.8
Clean sheets50%33%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%
Both teams scored50%50%
  • Oxford United are unbeaten in 9 league matches.
  • Oxford United: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 2nd and their defence 4th in the league.
  • Reading: 6th in the table; the model rates their attack 9th and their defence 14th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Oxford United matches: 2 of 4 correct.
  • Our predictions for Reading matches: 2 of 3 correct.

Match preview

A slight lean towards Oxford United (51%), though Reading win 23% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 25%.

At home this season Oxford United average 2.00 points and 1.5 goals per game, conceding 0.7. Away from home Reading take 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 4.7 per game for Oxford United at home and 5.0 for Reading on the road.

Current runs: Oxford United are unbeaten in 9 league matches.

Reading are 6th in the table while the model ranks them only 11th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

The model expects 1.79 goals from Oxford United and 1.10 from Reading; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%, over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 55%.

Both of their last league meetings ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 1-010%
  • 2-110%
  • 2-09%
  • 0-16%

Oxford United form

DWDWD
  • Dat Barnsley1-12026-10-31
  • Wvs Stockport County1-02026-10-27
  • Dvs Bradford City0-02026-10-24
  • Wvs Wigan Athletic2-12026-10-20
  • Dat Mansfield Town1-12026-10-15

Reading form

WLWWD
  • Dat Plymouth Argyle0-02026-10-31
  • Wvs Barnsley2-12026-10-24
  • Wvs Leyton Orient1-02026-10-21
  • Lat Wigan Athletic0-12026-10-17
  • Wat Milton Keynes Dons5-12026-10-10

Head to head

  • 2024-02-03Oxford United 1-1 Reading
  • 2023-12-12Reading 1-1 Oxford United

More League One predictions

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Prediction made 2026-11-04 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.