Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction

England · League One · 14 November 2026

Milton Keynes Dons12th · 18 pts
Sat 14 Nov
Burton Albion15th · 17 pts
Milton Keynes DonsDrawBurton Albion
Our predictionMilton Keynes Dons to winLean
48%Probability
2.10Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.45-1.20Expected goals
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Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Milton Keynes Dons48%2.10
  • Draw26%3.88
  • Burton Albion27%3.75

Double chance

  • Milton Keynes Dons or draw73%1.36
  • Milton Keynes Dons or Burton Albion74%1.35
  • Draw or Burton Albion52%1.91

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.02
  • Under 2.550%1.98

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.87
  • No47%2.14

Match in numbers

This season, Milton Keynes Dons at home and Burton Albion away

Milton Keynes Dons (home)Burton Albion (away)
Matches77
Points per game1.711.00
Goals scored per game2.140.86
Goals conceded per game1.431.57
Shots on target per game4.03.3
Shots on target conceded5.04.4
Clean sheets14%14%
Over 2.5 goals57%57%
Both teams scored86%43%
  • Milton Keynes Dons have won their last 3 league matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 12th and their defence 19th in the league.
  • Burton Albion: 15th in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 13th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Milton Keynes Dons matches: 2 of 3 correct.

Match preview

Milton Keynes Dons have the edge at 48%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 26% and a win for Burton Albion at 27%.

At home this season Milton Keynes Dons average 1.71 points and 2.1 goals per game, conceding 1.4. Away from home Burton Albion take 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Milton Keynes Dons manage 4.0 per home game and Burton Albion 3.3 per away game.

Form lines: Milton Keynes Dons have won their last 3 league matches.

Expected goals from the model: Milton Keynes Dons 1.45, Burton Albion 1.20. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

In their last 5 league meetings Milton Keynes Dons won 3 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-010%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-19%
  • 2-07%

Milton Keynes Dons form

WLWWW
  • Wvs Doncaster Rovers6-12026-10-31
  • Wvs Bromley4-12026-10-27
  • Wat Stevenage1-02026-10-24
  • Lat Blackpool0-22026-10-20
  • Wvs Luton Town2-12026-10-17

Burton Albion form

LDDWL
  • Lat Wycombe Wanderers0-22026-10-31
  • Wvs Leyton Orient2-12026-10-24
  • Dvs Bradford City0-02026-10-20
  • Dat Peterborough United2-22026-10-17
  • Lat Doncaster Rovers0-12026-10-10

Head to head

  • 2023-05-07Burton Albion 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons
  • 2022-12-03Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Burton Albion
  • 2022-01-25Burton Albion 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons
  • 2021-11-20Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 Burton Albion
  • 2021-03-20Burton Albion 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons

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Prediction last updated 2026-11-09 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.