Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Toluca60%1.66
- Draw22%4.55
- Tijuana18%5.60
Double chance
- Toluca or draw82%1.22
- Toluca or Tijuana78%1.28
- Draw or Tijuana40%2.51
Goals
- Over 2.560%1.67
- Under 2.540%2.48
Both teams to score
- Yes57%1.77
- No43%2.30
Match in numbers
This season, Toluca at home and Tijuana away
| Toluca (home) | Tijuana (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.75 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.67 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.8 | 3.5 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.6 | 6.8 |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 75% |
- Toluca have scored in 8 straight league matches.
- Tijuana have gone 5 league matches without a win.
- Our predictions for Toluca matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Tijuana matches: 1 of 4 correct.
Match preview
The model makes Toluca clear favourites at 60%. The draw is rated at 22% and a win for Tijuana at 18%.
At home this season Toluca average 1.67 points and 2.7 goals per game, conceding 1.5. Away from home Tijuana take 0.75 points per game, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Toluca manage 7.8 per home game and Tijuana 3.5 per away game.
Form lines: Toluca have scored in 8 straight league matches; Tijuana have gone 5 league matches without a win.
Expected goals from the model: Toluca 2.04, Tijuana 1.06. The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 60%.
In their last 5 league meetings Toluca won 4 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 2-110%
- 1-110%
- 1-09%
- 2-09%
- 3-17%
Toluca form
- Dvs Atlético San Luis1-12026-10-18
- Lat Tigres UANL2-32026-10-10
- Dat Cruz Azul3-32026-09-26
- Lvs Santos Laguna2-32026-09-21
- Wat Puebla1-02026-09-16
Tijuana form
- Dvs Puebla0-02026-10-17
- Dat Juárez1-12026-10-10
- Lvs Atlas2-32026-09-26
- Dat Pachuca2-22026-09-21
- Lvs Querétaro0-12026-09-12
Head to head
- 2026-02-14Toluca 1-0 Tijuana
- 2025-10-23Tijuana 0-0 Toluca
- 2025-01-11Tijuana 2-4 Toluca
- 2024-09-14Toluca 4-0 Tijuana
- 2024-02-25Toluca 2-0 Tijuana
More Liga MX predictions
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Querétaro
MonterreyThis match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.