Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Toluca56%1.79
- Draw22%4.62
- Monterrey23%4.42
Double chance
- Toluca or draw77%1.29
- Toluca or Monterrey78%1.28
- Draw or Monterrey44%2.26
Goals
- Over 2.563%1.58
- Under 2.537%2.72
Both teams to score
- Yes63%1.60
- No37%2.67
Match in numbers
This season, Toluca at home and Monterrey away
| Toluca (home) | Monterrey (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Points per game | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.57 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.67 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.5 | 4.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.7 | 5.7 |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 67% |
- Toluca have gone 7 league matches without a win.
- Toluca: 5th in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 2nd in the league.
- Monterrey: 9th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 10th in the league.
- Our predictions for Toluca matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Monterrey matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Toluca have the edge at 56%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 22% and a win for Monterrey at 23%.
At home this season Toluca average 1.57 points and 2.6 goals per game, conceding 1.6. Away from home Monterrey take 1.17 points per game, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Toluca manage 7.5 per home game and Monterrey 4.2 per away game.
Form lines: Toluca have gone 7 league matches without a win.
Expected goals from the model: Toluca 1.93, Monterrey 1.33. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 63%.
In their last 5 league meetings Toluca won 4 and Monterrey won 1.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 1-08%
- 2-07%
- 1-27%
Toluca form
- Dat Club América2-22026-11-01
- Dat León1-12026-10-24
- Dvs Tijuana2-22026-10-22
- Dvs Atlético San Luis1-12026-10-18
- Lat Tigres UANL2-32026-10-10
Monterrey form
- Dvs Tijuana3-32026-11-01
- Lvs Guadalajara0-12026-10-25
- Wat Puebla4-12026-10-22
- Wvs Pachuca2-12026-10-19
- Dat Club América1-12026-10-11
Head to head
- 2026-01-11Monterrey 0-1 Toluca
- 2025-12-07Toluca 3-2 Monterrey
- 2025-12-04Monterrey 1-0 Toluca
- 2025-09-25Toluca 6-2 Monterrey
- 2025-05-11Toluca 2-1 Monterrey
More Liga MX predictions
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Querétaro
MonterreyPrediction made 2026-11-08 00:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.