São Paulo vs Corinthians prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- São Paulo48%2.10
- Draw29%3.48
- Corinthians24%4.23
Double chance
- São Paulo or draw76%1.31
- São Paulo or Corinthians71%1.40
- Draw or Corinthians52%1.91
Goals
- Over 2.535%2.85
- Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes41%2.45
- No59%1.69
Match in numbers
This season, São Paulo at home and Corinthians away
| São Paulo (home) | Corinthians (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.57 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.88 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.9 | 3.4 |
| Shots on target conceded | 2.0 | 5.7 |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 86% |
- Corinthians have scored in 8 straight league matches.
- São Paulo: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 16th and their defence 3rd in the league.
- Corinthians: 18th in the table; the model rates their attack 15th and their defence 6th in the league.
- Our predictions for São Paulo matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Corinthians matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards São Paulo (48%), though Corinthians win 24% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 29%.
At home this season São Paulo average 2.00 points and 1.4 goals per game, conceding 0.9. Away from home Corinthians take 0.57 points per game, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 4.9 per game for São Paulo at home and 3.4 for Corinthians on the road.
Current runs: Corinthians have scored in 8 straight league matches.
The model expects 1.24 goals from São Paulo and 0.86 from Corinthians; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 15%, over 2.5 goals 35% and both teams to score 41%.
In their last 5 league meetings São Paulo won 2, Corinthians won 2 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-015%
- 1-113%
- 0-012%
- 0-111%
- 2-09%
São Paulo form
- Lat Bahia2-32026-10-29
- Dat Mirassol1-12026-10-24
- Wvs Vasco da Gama1-02026-10-18
- Wvs Vitória2-12026-10-11
- Lat Cruzeiro0-22026-10-08
Corinthians form
- Wvs Mirassol2-02026-10-30
- Lat Vasco da Gama2-32026-10-24
- Dvs Vitória1-12026-10-19
- Lat Palmeiras1-42026-10-11
- Lat Internacional1-22026-10-07
Head to head
- 2026-05-10Corinthians 3-2 São Paulo
- 2025-11-20Corinthians 3-1 São Paulo
- 2025-07-20São Paulo 2-0 Corinthians
- 2024-09-29São Paulo 3-1 Corinthians
- 2024-06-16Corinthians 2-2 São Paulo
More Brasileirão Série A predictions
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Mirassol
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Vasco da GamaPrediction made 2026-11-05 00:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.