Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Chapecoense23%4.26
- Draw24%4.11
- Vasco da Gama52%1.92
Double chance
- Chapecoense or draw48%2.09
- Chapecoense or Vasco da Gama76%1.32
- Draw or Vasco da Gama77%1.31
Goals
- Over 2.553%1.87
- Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to score
- Yes55%1.80
- No45%2.24
Match in numbers
This season, Chapecoense at home and Vasco da Gama away
| Chapecoense (home) | Vasco da Gama (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 8 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.25 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 12% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 50% |
- Chapecoense: 19th in the table; the model rates their attack 20th and their defence 20th in the league.
- Vasco da Gama: 10th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 12th in the league.
- Our predictions for Chapecoense matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Vasco da Gama matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Vasco da Gama (52%), though Chapecoense win 23% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 24%.
At home this season Chapecoense average 1.00 points and 1.3 goals per game, conceding 2.3. Away from home Vasco da Gama take 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 3.7 per game for Chapecoense at home and 4.0 for Vasco da Gama on the road.
The model expects 1.17 goals from Chapecoense and 1.65 from Vasco da Gama; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%, over 2.5 goals 53% and both teams to score 55%.
They last met in the league on 2026-02-05: Vasco da Gama 1-1 Chapecoense.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 0-110%
- 1-29%
- 0-28%
- 1-07%
Chapecoense form
- Lvs Mirassol1-22026-11-03
- Lat Red Bull Bragantino0-32026-10-28
- Wvs Fluminense2-12026-10-24
- Lat Botafogo0-12026-10-17
- Lvs Athletico Paranaense1-42026-10-12
Vasco da Gama form
- Wat Athletico Paranaense3-12026-11-04
- Lvs Flamengo1-42026-10-29
- Wvs Corinthians3-22026-10-24
- Lat São Paulo0-12026-10-18
- Dvs Remo0-02026-10-10
Head to head
- 2026-02-05Vasco da Gama 1-1 Chapecoense
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Mirassol
Atlético MineiroPrediction last updated 2026-11-09 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.