Toronto vs DC United prediction

USA · MLS · 28 October 2026

Toronto13th · 22 pts
Wed 28 Oct
DC United25th · 15 pts
TorontoDrawDC United
Our predictionToronto to winLean
53%Probability
1.89Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.72-1.23Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Toronto53%1.89
  • Draw24%4.25
  • DC United24%4.24

Double chance

  • Toronto or draw76%1.31
  • Toronto or DC United76%1.31
  • Draw or DC United47%2.12

Goals

  • Over 2.556%1.77
  • Under 2.544%2.30

Both teams to score

  • Yes58%1.73
  • No42%2.37

Match preview

Toronto have the edge at 53%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 24% and a win for DC United at 24%.

Expected goals from the model: Toronto 1.72, DC United 1.23. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 56%.

Toronto have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WDWLL).

DC United have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLWLD).

In the table Toronto are 13th with 22 points and DC United 25th with 15.

In their last 5 league meetings Toronto won 1, DC United won 2 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-09%
  • 2-08%
  • 1-27%

Toronto form

LLWDW
  • Wat New York RB2-02026-10-17
  • Dvs Orlando City3-32026-10-14
  • Wvs Montréal2-12026-10-10
  • Lat Nashville SC0-22026-09-27
  • Lat St. Louis City1-32026-09-20

DC United form

DLWLL
  • Lat Cincinnati1-22026-10-21
  • Lat Orlando City1-42026-10-17
  • Wvs New York RB2-12026-10-14
  • Lat Inter Miami0-42026-10-10
  • Dat Vancouver Whitecaps3-32026-09-27

Head to head

  • 2026-07-25DC United 2-1 Toronto
  • 2025-05-10Toronto 2-0 DC United
  • 2025-02-23DC United 2-2 Toronto
  • 2024-09-01Toronto 1-3 DC United
  • 2024-06-02DC United 2-2 Toronto

More MLS predictions

All matches ›

Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.