Orlando City vs New York City prediction

USA · MLS · 24 October 2026

Orlando City4th · 27 pts
Sat 24 Oct
New York City24th · 15 pts
Orlando CityDrawNew York City
Our predictionOrlando City to winLean
46%Probability
2.16Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.80-1.59Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Orlando City46%2.16
  • Draw23%4.30
  • New York City30%3.28

Double chance

  • Orlando City or draw70%1.44
  • Orlando City or New York City77%1.30
  • Draw or New York City54%1.86

Goals

  • Over 2.566%1.52
  • Under 2.534%2.92

Both teams to score

  • Yes66%1.51
  • No34%2.96

Match preview

Orlando City have the edge at 46%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for New York City at 30%.

Expected goals from the model: Orlando City 1.80, New York City 1.59. The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 66%.

Orlando City have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WDWLL).

New York City have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (DLLDL).

In the table Orlando City are 4th with 27 points and New York City 24th with 15.

In their last 5 league meetings Orlando City won 0, New York City won 4 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-19%
  • 2-19%
  • 1-28%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-06%

Orlando City form

LLWDW
  • Wvs DC United4-12026-10-17
  • Dat Toronto3-32026-10-14
  • Wvs Columbus Crew3-22026-10-10
  • Lat Philadelphia Union2-42026-09-26
  • Lat New England2-42026-09-19

New York City form

LDLLD
  • Dvs Los Angeles1-12026-10-17
  • Lat Inter Miami0-22026-10-14
  • Lat Chicago Fire1-22026-10-10
  • Dat Atlanta United2-22026-09-26
  • Lvs New York RB0-12026-09-18

Head to head

  • 2026-03-07New York City 5-0 Orlando City
  • 2025-07-17Orlando City 1-2 New York City
  • 2025-03-09New York City 2-1 Orlando City
  • 2024-07-21Orlando City 1-1 New York City
  • 2024-06-29New York City 4-2 Orlando City

More MLS predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.