Philadelphia Union vs New England prediction

USA · MLS · 24 October 2026

Philadelphia Union1st · 39 pts
Sat 24 Oct
New England5th · 27 pts
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew England
Our predictionPhiladelphia Union to winStrong pick
62%Probability
1.62Fair odds
2-1Likely score
2.05-1.08Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Philadelphia Union62%1.62
  • Draw21%4.75
  • New England17%5.78

Double chance

  • Philadelphia Union or draw83%1.21
  • Philadelphia Union or New England79%1.27
  • Draw or New England38%2.61

Goals

  • Over 2.560%1.65
  • Under 2.540%2.53

Both teams to score

  • Yes57%1.75
  • No43%2.34

Match preview

The model makes Philadelphia Union clear favourites, with a 62% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 21% and a win for New England at 17%.

Expected goals from the model: Philadelphia Union 2.05, New England 1.08. The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 60%.

Philadelphia Union have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (DWWWW).

New England have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WWLLW).

In the table Philadelphia Union are 1st with 39 points and New England 5th with 27.

In their last 5 league meetings Philadelphia Union won 4, New England won 1 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-110%
  • 1-19%
  • 2-09%
  • 1-09%
  • 3-17%

Philadelphia Union form

WWWWD
  • Dvs Charlotte2-22026-10-17
  • Wat Chicago Fire3-12026-10-15
  • Wvs Real Salt Lake2-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Orlando City4-22026-09-26
  • Wat Sporting KC4-32026-09-20

New England form

WLLWW
  • Wvs Chicago Fire1-02026-10-17
  • Wat Cincinnati3-22026-10-14
  • Lvs Seattle Sounders0-32026-10-10
  • Lat Real Salt Lake0-32026-09-27
  • Wvs Orlando City4-22026-09-19

Head to head

  • 2026-05-09New England 2-1 Philadelphia Union
  • 2025-09-20Philadelphia Union 1-0 New England
  • 2025-03-09New England 0-2 Philadelphia Union
  • 2024-07-18Philadelphia Union 5-1 New England
  • 2024-05-19New England 0-3 Philadelphia Union

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.