Tigres UANL vs León prediction

Mexico · Liga MX · 21 October 2026

Tigres UANL
0 - 2Full time
León
Tigres UANLDrawLeón
Prediction missedModel pick before kick-off: Tigres UANL to win (60%)
Our predictionTigres UANL to winLean
60%Probability
1.67Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.92-0.88Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Tigres UANL60%1.67
  • Draw22%4.50
  • León18%5.61

Double chance

  • Tigres UANL or draw82%1.22
  • Tigres UANL or León78%1.29
  • Draw or León40%2.50

Goals

  • Over 2.553%1.88
  • Under 2.547%2.13

Both teams to score

  • Yes50%2.01
  • No50%1.99

Match preview

Tigres UANL have the edge at 60%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 22% and a win for León at 18%.

Expected goals from the model: Tigres UANL 1.92, León 0.88. The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 53%.

Tigres UANL have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWWLD).

León have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWDW).

In their last 5 league meetings Tigres UANL won 2, León won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-012%
  • 2-011%
  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%
  • 3-07%

Tigres UANL form

DLWWD
  • Dat Guadalajara1-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Toluca3-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Puebla1-02026-09-27
  • Lat Juárez0-22026-09-19
  • Dat Monterrey0-02026-09-13

León form

WDWDL
  • Lvs Club América3-52026-10-18
  • Dat Puebla1-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Juárez2-12026-09-28
  • Dat Querétaro1-12026-09-21
  • Wvs Atlético San Luis2-02026-09-15

Head to head

  • 2026-02-01León 1-2 Tigres UANL
  • 2025-09-14Tigres UANL 0-0 León
  • 2025-02-23León 1-0 Tigres UANL
  • 2024-09-28Tigres UANL 2-2 León
  • 2024-01-18León 1-2 Tigres UANL

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LeónTolucaSat 24 Oct ·
TolucaMatch result
45%
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MonterreyGuadalajaraSun 25 Oct ·
MonterreyMatch result
36%
2.74Fair odds
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Pumas UNAMTigres UANLSun 25 Oct ·
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44%
2.27Fair odds
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QuerétaroCruz AzulMon 26 Oct ·
Cruz AzulMatch result
50%
2.01Fair odds
Analysis

This match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.