León vs Toluca prediction

Mexico · Liga MX · 24 October 2026

León5th · 21 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Toluca4th · 22 pts
LeónDrawToluca
Our predictionToluca to winOpen game
45%Probability
2.23Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.43-1.78Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • León30%3.30
  • Draw25%4.03
  • Toluca45%2.23

Double chance

  • León or draw55%1.81
  • León or Toluca75%1.33
  • Draw or Toluca70%1.44

Goals

  • Over 2.562%1.61
  • Under 2.538%2.65

Both teams to score

  • Yes63%1.59
  • No37%2.71

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. León 30%, draw 25%, Toluca 45%.

Expected goals from the model: León 1.43, Toluca 1.78. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.

León have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLDWD).

Toluca have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (DDLDL).

In the table León are 5th with 21 points and Toluca 4th with 22.

In their last 5 league meetings León won 0, Toluca won 3 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 1-29%
  • 0-17%
  • 2-17%
  • 2-27%

León form

DWDLW
  • Wat Tigres UANL2-02026-10-21
  • Lvs Club América3-52026-10-18
  • Dat Puebla1-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Juárez2-12026-09-28
  • Dat Querétaro1-12026-09-21

Toluca form

LDLDD
  • Dvs Tijuana2-22026-10-22
  • Dvs Atlético San Luis1-12026-10-18
  • Lat Tigres UANL2-32026-10-10
  • Dat Cruz Azul3-32026-09-26
  • Lvs Santos Laguna2-32026-09-21

Head to head

  • 2026-04-26Toluca 4-1 León
  • 2025-10-05León 2-4 Toluca
  • 2025-02-09León 3-3 Toluca
  • 2024-11-02Toluca 2-2 León
  • 2024-02-03Toluca 4-1 León

More Liga MX predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.