León vs Toluca prediction
León5th · 21 ptsSat 24 Oct
Toluca4th · 22 ptsLeónDrawToluca
Our predictionToluca to winOpen game
45%Probability
2.23Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.43-1.78Expected goals
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- León30%3.30
- Draw25%4.03
- Toluca45%2.23
Double chance
- León or draw55%1.81
- León or Toluca75%1.33
- Draw or Toluca70%1.44
Goals
- Over 2.562%1.61
- Under 2.538%2.65
Both teams to score
- Yes63%1.59
- No37%2.71
Match preview
An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. León 30%, draw 25%, Toluca 45%.
Expected goals from the model: León 1.43, Toluca 1.78. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.
León have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLDWD).
Toluca have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (DDLDL).
In the table León are 5th with 21 points and Toluca 4th with 22.
In their last 5 league meetings León won 0, Toluca won 3 and 2 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 1-29%
- 0-17%
- 2-17%
- 2-27%
León form
DWDLW
- Wat Tigres UANL2-02026-10-21
- Lvs Club América3-52026-10-18
- Dat Puebla1-12026-10-10
- Wvs Juárez2-12026-09-28
- Dat Querétaro1-12026-09-21
Toluca form
LDLDD
- Dvs Tijuana2-22026-10-22
- Dvs Atlético San Luis1-12026-10-18
- Lat Tigres UANL2-32026-10-10
- Dat Cruz Azul3-32026-09-26
- Lvs Santos Laguna2-32026-09-21
Head to head
- 2026-04-26Toluca 4-1 León
- 2025-10-05León 2-4 Toluca
- 2025-02-09León 3-3 Toluca
- 2024-11-02Toluca 2-2 León
- 2024-02-03Toluca 4-1 León
More Liga MX predictions
All matches ›NecaxaMatch result
53%
1.88Fair odds
Analysis
AtlanteMatch result
49%
2.05Fair odds
Analysis
MonterreyMatch result
36%
2.74Fair odds
Analysis
Pumas UNAMMatch result
44%
2.27Fair odds
Analysis
Cruz AzulMatch result
50%
2.01Fair odds
Analysis
Club AméricaMatch result
60%
1.66Fair odds
Analysis
Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.