Sporting KC vs Austin prediction

USA · MLS · 25 October 2026

Sporting KC29th · 11 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Austin22nd · 17 pts
Sporting KCDrawAustin
Our predictionSporting KC to winOpen game
43%Probability
2.35Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.88-1.50Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Sporting KC43%2.35
  • Draw24%4.10
  • Austin33%3.03

Double chance

  • Sporting KC or draw67%1.49
  • Sporting KC or Austin76%1.32
  • Draw or Austin57%1.74

Goals

  • Over 2.566%1.52
  • Under 2.534%2.91

Both teams to score

  • Yes66%1.52
  • No34%2.91

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Sporting KC 43%, draw 24%, Austin 33%.

Expected goals from the model: Sporting KC 1.88, Austin 1.50. The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 66%.

Sporting KC have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDLW).

Austin have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLLDD).

In the table Sporting KC are 29th with 11 points and Austin 22nd with 17.

In their last 5 league meetings Sporting KC won 2, Austin won 3 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-19%
  • 2-19%
  • 1-27%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-07%

Sporting KC form

WLDLL
  • Lvs Real Salt Lake1-32026-10-18
  • Lat Nashville SC0-42026-10-15
  • Dvs Portland Timbers3-32026-10-11
  • Lat Seattle Sounders1-22026-10-02
  • Wat Houston Dynamo2-02026-09-27

Austin form

DDLLL
  • Lvs Vancouver Whitecaps1-22026-10-18
  • Lat Los Angeles1-32026-10-15
  • Lvs Nashville SC1-42026-10-11
  • Dvs San Diego3-32026-09-27
  • Dat Dallas0-02026-09-20

Head to head

  • 2026-05-17Austin 1-2 Sporting KC
  • 2025-09-07Sporting KC 1-2 Austin
  • 2025-02-23Austin 1-0 Sporting KC
  • 2024-06-30Sporting KC 2-0 Austin
  • 2024-05-19Austin 3-2 Sporting KC

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.