Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Querétaro vs Puebla prediction

Mexico · Liga MX · 09 November 2026

Querétaro12th · 20 pts
0 - 2Full time
Puebla14th · 16 pts
QuerétaroDrawPuebla
Prediction missedModel pick before kick-off: Querétaro to win (51%)
Our predictionQuerétaro to winLean
51%Probability
1.96Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.30-1.01Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Querétaro51%1.96
  • Draw26%3.88
  • Puebla23%4.30

Double chance

  • Querétaro or draw77%1.30
  • Querétaro or Puebla74%1.35
  • Draw or Puebla49%2.04

Goals

  • Over 2.541%2.46
  • Under 2.559%1.68

Both teams to score

  • Yes46%2.18
  • No54%1.85

Match in numbers

This season, Querétaro at home and Puebla away

Querétaro (home)Puebla (away)
Matches67
Points per game1.171.43
Goals scored per game1.330.86
Goals conceded per game1.501.00
Shots on target per game3.74.0
Shots on target conceded6.24.3
Clean sheets17%43%
Over 2.5 goals50%29%
Both teams scored67%29%
  • Querétaro have lost their last 4 league matches.
  • Puebla have gone 7 league matches without a win.
  • Querétaro: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 9th in the league.
  • Puebla: 14th in the table; the model rates their attack 16th and their defence 8th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Querétaro matches: 1 of 3 correct.

Match preview

A slight lean towards Querétaro (51%), though Puebla win 23% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 26%.

At home this season Querétaro average 1.17 points and 1.3 goals per game, conceding 1.5. Away from home Puebla take 1.43 points per game, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 3.7 per game for Querétaro at home and 4.0 for Puebla on the road.

Current runs: Querétaro have lost their last 4 league matches; Puebla have gone 7 league matches without a win.

Querétaro are 12th in the table while the model ranks them only 17th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

The model expects 1.30 goals from Querétaro and 1.01 from Puebla; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13%, over 2.5 goals 41% and both teams to score 46%.

In their last 5 league meetings Querétaro won 4 and Puebla won 1.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 1-113%
  • 0-110%
  • 0-010%
  • 2-18%

Querétaro form

WLLLL
  • Lat Juárez1-32026-10-31
  • Lvs Cruz Azul1-32026-10-26
  • Lat Atlético San Luis1-22026-10-21
  • Lat Santos Laguna0-52026-10-17
  • Wvs Atlante2-02026-10-10

Puebla form

LDDLL
  • Lvs Pumas UNAM1-22026-10-31
  • Lvs Monterrey1-42026-10-22
  • Dat Tijuana0-02026-10-17
  • Dvs León1-12026-10-10
  • Lat Tigres UANL0-12026-09-27

Head to head

  • 2026-04-25Puebla 1-2 Querétaro
  • 2025-10-04Querétaro 3-1 Puebla
  • 2025-03-02Querétaro 2-0 Puebla
  • 2024-09-14Puebla 2-1 Querétaro
  • 2024-02-24Puebla 0-2 Querétaro

More Liga MX predictions

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Prediction made 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.