Philadelphia Union vs Toronto prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Philadelphia Union67%1.49
- Draw19%5.15
- Toronto13%7.51
Double chance
- Philadelphia Union or draw87%1.15
- Philadelphia Union or Toronto81%1.24
- Draw or Toronto33%3.06
Goals
- Over 2.559%1.68
- Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to score
- Yes53%1.88
- No47%2.14
Match in numbers
This season, Philadelphia Union at home and Toronto away
| Philadelphia Union (home) | Toronto (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| Points per game | 2.30 | 0.82 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.50 | 0.91 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.73 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.7 | 3.6 |
| Shots on target conceded | 2.9 | 6.1 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 55% |
- Toronto have scored in 6 straight league matches.
- Philadelphia Union: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 4th and their defence 2nd in the league.
- Toronto: 16th in the table; the model rates their attack 23rd and their defence 26th in the league.
- Our predictions for Philadelphia Union matches: 1 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Toronto matches: 4 of 4 correct.
Match preview
The model makes Philadelphia Union clear favourites at 67%. The draw is rated at 19% and a win for Toronto at 13%.
At home this season Philadelphia Union average 2.30 points and 2.5 goals per game, conceding 1.2. Away from home Toronto take 0.82 points per game, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.7. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Philadelphia Union manage 6.7 per home game and Toronto 3.6 per away game.
Form lines: Toronto have scored in 6 straight league matches.
Toronto are 16th in the table while the model ranks them only 26th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.
Expected goals from the model: Philadelphia Union 2.15, Toronto 0.93. The single most likely score is 2-0 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 59%.
In their last 5 league meetings Philadelphia Union won 1, Toronto won 1 and 3 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 2-011%
- 1-010%
- 2-110%
- 1-19%
- 3-08%
Philadelphia Union form
- Lat Cincinnati0-12026-10-31
- Dat Nashville SC0-02026-10-29
- Lvs New England1-22026-10-24
- Dvs Charlotte2-22026-10-17
- Wat Chicago Fire3-12026-10-15
Toronto form
- Lat Atlanta United1-32026-11-01
- Wvs DC United2-12026-10-28
- Lat Columbus Crew2-42026-10-24
- Wat New York RB2-02026-10-17
- Dvs Orlando City3-32026-10-14
Head to head
- 2026-04-22Toronto 3-3 Philadelphia Union
- 2025-08-09Philadelphia Union 1-1 Toronto
- 2025-05-29Toronto 1-2 Philadelphia Union
- 2024-07-14Toronto 2-1 Philadelphia Union
- 2024-05-30Philadelphia Union 0-0 Toronto
Prediction made 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.