New York City vs Montréal prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- New York City62%1.61
- Draw21%4.74
- Montréal17%5.92
Double chance
- New York City or draw83%1.20
- New York City or Montréal79%1.27
- Draw or Montréal38%2.63
Goals
- Over 2.554%1.86
- Under 2.546%2.17
Both teams to score
- Yes53%1.88
- No47%2.14
Match in numbers
This season, New York City at home and Montréal away
| New York City (home) | Montréal (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| Points per game | 1.12 | 0.50 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.25 | 0.62 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.38 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
- Montréal have gone 5 league matches without a win.
- New York City: 20th in the table; the model rates their attack 22nd and their defence 6th in the league.
- Montréal: 30th in the table; the model rates their attack 27th and their defence 19th in the league.
- Our predictions for New York City matches: 2 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Montréal matches: 3 of 4 correct.
Match preview
New York City go in as strong favourites: 62% to win, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Montréal.
At home this season New York City average 1.12 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 1.2. Away from home Montréal take 0.50 points per game, scoring 0.6 and conceding 2.4. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, New York City manage 4.0 per home game and Montréal 3.9 per away game.
Form lines: Montréal have gone 5 league matches without a win.
New York City sit 20th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 11th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: New York City 1.82, Montréal 1.02. The single most likely score is 1-0 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 54%.
In their last 5 league meetings New York City won 1 and Montréal won 4.
Most likely scores
- 1-011%
- 1-111%
- 2-110%
- 2-010%
- 0-16%
New York City form
- Wvs Atlanta United2-12026-10-28
- Dat Orlando City2-22026-10-24
- Dvs Los Angeles1-12026-10-17
- Lat Inter Miami0-22026-10-14
- Lat Chicago Fire1-22026-10-10
Montréal form
- Lat Charlotte0-42026-10-28
- Lvs Nashville SC0-22026-10-24
- Dat Seattle Sounders1-12026-10-18
- Lvs Atlanta United0-32026-10-14
- Lat Toronto1-22026-10-10
Head to head
- 2026-04-25Montréal 1-0 New York City
- 2025-06-29Montréal 1-0 New York City
- 2025-05-11New York City 0-1 Montréal
- 2024-10-19Montréal 2-0 New York City
- 2024-07-04New York City 2-0 Montréal
Prediction made 2026-10-31 17:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.