New York City vs Atlanta United prediction

USA · MLS · 28 October 2026

New York City24th · 15 pts
Wed 28 Oct
Atlanta United18th · 19 pts
New York CityDrawAtlanta United
Our predictionNew York City to winLean
53%Probability
1.87Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.53-0.99Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • New York City53%1.87
  • Draw25%3.95
  • Atlanta United21%4.70

Double chance

  • New York City or draw79%1.27
  • New York City or Atlanta United75%1.34
  • Draw or Atlanta United47%2.15

Goals

  • Over 2.546%2.17
  • Under 2.554%1.86

Both teams to score

  • Yes49%2.04
  • No51%1.96

Match preview

New York City have the edge at 53%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Atlanta United at 21%.

Expected goals from the model: New York City 1.53, Atlanta United 0.99. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 46%.

New York City have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (DLLDL).

Atlanta United have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LWLDW).

In the table New York City are 24th with 15 points and Atlanta United 18th with 19.

In their last 5 league meetings New York City won 1, Atlanta United won 1 and 3 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 1-112%
  • 2-09%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-18%

New York City form

LDLLD
  • Dvs Los Angeles1-12026-10-17
  • Lat Inter Miami0-22026-10-14
  • Lat Chicago Fire1-22026-10-10
  • Dat Atlanta United2-22026-09-26
  • Lvs New York RB0-12026-09-18

Atlanta United form

WDLWL
  • Lvs Inter Miami1-32026-10-17
  • Wat Montréal3-02026-10-14
  • Lvs Cincinnati1-32026-10-10
  • Dvs New York City2-22026-09-26
  • Wat Portland Timbers1-02026-09-20

Head to head

  • 2026-09-26Atlanta United 2-2 New York City
  • 2025-06-13New York City 4-0 Atlanta United
  • 2025-03-29Atlanta United 4-3 New York City
  • 2024-07-18Atlanta United 2-2 New York City
  • 2024-04-07New York City 1-1 Atlanta United

More MLS predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.