Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Necaxa36%2.79
- Draw26%3.85
- Tijuana38%2.62
Double chance
- Necaxa or draw62%1.62
- Necaxa or Tijuana74%1.35
- Draw or Tijuana64%1.56
Goals
- Over 2.554%1.84
- Under 2.546%2.19
Both teams to score
- Yes57%1.75
- No43%2.34
Match in numbers
This season, Necaxa at home and Tijuana away
| Necaxa (home) | Tijuana (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| Points per game | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.12 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.5 | 3.3 |
| Shots on target conceded | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 86% |
- Necaxa have gone 13 league matches without a win.
- Tijuana are unbeaten in 6 league matches.
- Necaxa: 17th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 13th in the league.
- Tijuana: 6th in the table; the model rates their attack 12th and their defence 11th in the league.
- Our predictions for Necaxa matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Tijuana matches: 1 of 4 correct.
Match preview
An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Necaxa 36%, draw 26%, Tijuana 38%.
At home this season Necaxa average 0.88 points and 1.1 goals per game, conceding 1.9. Away from home Tijuana take 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.0. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Necaxa manage 5.5 per home game and Tijuana 3.3 per away game.
Form lines: Necaxa have gone 13 league matches without a win; Tijuana are unbeaten in 6 league matches.
Necaxa sit 17th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 12th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: Necaxa 1.54, Tijuana 1.32. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 54%.
In their last 5 league meetings Necaxa won 3 and Tijuana won 2.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-09%
- 2-19%
- 0-18%
- 1-28%
Necaxa form
- Lat Santos Laguna0-12026-11-01
- Dvs Juárez1-12026-10-24
- Lat Guadalajara0-12026-10-21
- Lvs Atlas0-22026-10-17
- Dat Pachuca3-32026-10-11
Tijuana form
- Dat Monterrey3-32026-11-01
- Dat Club América1-12026-10-29
- Wvs Santos Laguna4-12026-10-26
- Dat Toluca2-22026-10-22
- Dvs Puebla0-02026-10-17
Head to head
- 2026-03-21Necaxa 3-0 Tijuana
- 2025-09-01Tijuana 3-0 Necaxa
- 2025-04-05Tijuana 1-2 Necaxa
- 2024-10-19Necaxa 1-2 Tijuana
- 2024-04-06Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa
More Liga MX predictions
All matches ›
Querétaro
MonterreyPrediction made 2026-11-07 00:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.