Monterrey vs Pachuca prediction

Mexico · Liga MX · 19 October 2026

Monterrey
2 - 1Full time
Pachuca
MonterreyDrawPachuca
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Monterrey to win (42%)
Our predictionMonterrey to winOpen game
42%Probability
2.36Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.49-1.25Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Monterrey42%2.36
  • Draw26%3.92
  • Pachuca32%3.11

Double chance

  • Monterrey or draw68%1.47
  • Monterrey or Pachuca74%1.34
  • Draw or Pachuca58%1.73

Goals

  • Over 2.552%1.93
  • Under 2.548%2.07

Both teams to score

  • Yes55%1.81
  • No45%2.23

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Monterrey 42%, draw 26%, Pachuca 32%.

Expected goals from the model: Monterrey 1.49, Pachuca 1.25. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 52%.

Monterrey have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (DLWDL).

Pachuca have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DLDWW).

In their last 5 league meetings Monterrey won 1, Pachuca won 4 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-010%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-18%
  • 1-28%

Monterrey form

LDWLD
  • Dat Club América1-12026-10-11
  • Lat Atlante2-42026-09-26
  • Wvs Cruz Azul1-02026-09-20
  • Dvs Tigres UANL0-02026-09-13
  • Lvs Atlético San Luis1-32026-08-31

Pachuca form

WWDLD
  • Dvs Necaxa3-32026-10-11
  • Lat Santos Laguna0-12026-09-27
  • Dvs Tijuana2-22026-09-21
  • Wat Atlante3-02026-09-12
  • Wat Juárez2-02026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-04-19Monterrey 1-3 Pachuca
  • 2025-07-14Pachuca 3-0 Monterrey
  • 2025-04-28Monterrey 1-2 Pachuca
  • 2025-01-26Monterrey 2-3 Pachuca
  • 2024-07-08Pachuca 0-1 Monterrey

More Liga MX predictions

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This match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.