Minnesota United vs Sporting KC prediction

USA · MLS · 29 October 2026

Minnesota United27th · 12 pts
Thu 29 Oct
Sporting KC29th · 11 pts
Minnesota UnitedDrawSporting KC
Our predictionMinnesota United to winStrong pick
63%Probability
1.59Fair odds
2-1Likely score
2.36-1.34Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Minnesota United63%1.59
  • Draw19%5.37
  • Sporting KC19%5.37

Double chance

  • Minnesota United or draw81%1.23
  • Minnesota United or Sporting KC81%1.23
  • Draw or Sporting KC37%2.69

Goals

  • Over 2.571%1.40
  • Under 2.529%3.48

Both teams to score

  • Yes67%1.50
  • No33%2.99

Match preview

The model makes Minnesota United clear favourites, with a 63% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 19% and a win for Sporting KC at 19%.

Expected goals from the model: Minnesota United 2.36, Sporting KC 1.34. The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 71%.

Minnesota United have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WDDLL).

Sporting KC have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDLW).

In the table Minnesota United are 27th with 12 points and Sporting KC 29th with 11.

In their last 5 league meetings Minnesota United won 3, Sporting KC won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-19%
  • 1-18%
  • 3-17%
  • 2-07%
  • 2-26%

Minnesota United form

LLDDW
  • Wvs St. Louis City3-22026-10-17
  • Dat Colorado Rapids2-22026-10-15
  • Dvs Houston Dynamo2-22026-10-11
  • Lat Seattle Sounders1-32026-09-27
  • Lvs LA Galaxy2-32026-09-20

Sporting KC form

WLDLL
  • Lvs Real Salt Lake1-32026-10-18
  • Lat Nashville SC0-42026-10-15
  • Dvs Portland Timbers3-32026-10-11
  • Lat Seattle Sounders1-22026-10-02
  • Wat Houston Dynamo2-02026-09-27

Head to head

  • 2026-07-23Sporting KC 2-1 Minnesota United
  • 2025-10-05Minnesota United 3-0 Sporting KC
  • 2025-03-16Sporting KC 3-3 Minnesota United
  • 2024-09-22Sporting KC 0-2 Minnesota United
  • 2024-06-02Minnesota United 3-1 Sporting KC

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.