Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Manchester United50%1.99
- Draw25%4.06
- Aston Villa25%3.99
Double chance
- Manchester United or draw75%1.33
- Manchester United or Aston Villa75%1.33
- Draw or Aston Villa50%2.01
Goals
- Over 2.560%1.66
- Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to score
- Yes60%1.67
- No40%2.49
Match in numbers
This season, Manchester United at home and Aston Villa away
| Manchester United (home) | Aston Villa (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.8 | 2.5 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
- Manchester United have gone 7 league matches without a win.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in 5 league matches.
- Manchester United: 19th in the table; the model rates their attack 2nd and their defence 14th in the league.
- Aston Villa: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 17th in the league.
- Our predictions for Manchester United matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Aston Villa matches: 0 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Manchester United (50%), though Aston Villa win 25% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 25%.
At home this season Manchester United average 1.00 points and 1.5 goals per game, conceding 1.8. Away from home Aston Villa take 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.8 per game for Manchester United at home and 2.5 for Aston Villa on the road.
Current runs: Manchester United have gone 7 league matches without a win; Aston Villa are unbeaten in 5 league matches.
Manchester United sit 19th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 6th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
The model expects 1.89 goals from Manchester United and 1.23 from Aston Villa; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10%, over 2.5 goals 60% and both teams to score 60%.
In their last 5 league meetings Manchester United won 3, Aston Villa won 1 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 1-09%
- 2-08%
- 1-26%
Manchester United form
- Lat Chelsea0-22026-10-31
- Lvs AFC Bournemouth0-32026-10-25
- Dat Leeds United1-12026-10-18
- Dvs Tottenham Hotspur1-12026-10-10
- Dat Fulham1-12026-09-20
Aston Villa form
- Dvs Fulham1-12026-10-31
- Wvs Manchester City2-12026-10-24
- Wat Newcastle United1-02026-10-17
- Dvs Brentford2-22026-10-10
- Wat Tottenham Hotspur3-22026-09-19
Head to head
- 2026-03-15Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa
- 2025-12-21Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United
- 2025-05-25Manchester United 2-0 Aston Villa
- 2024-10-06Aston Villa 0-0 Manchester United
- 2024-02-11Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United
Prediction made 2026-11-08 16:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.