Guadalajara vs Necaxa prediction

Mexico · Liga MX · 21 October 2026

Guadalajara
1 - 0Full time
Necaxa
GuadalajaraDrawNecaxa
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Guadalajara to win (68%)
Our predictionGuadalajara to winStrong pick
68%Probability
1.48Fair odds
2-0Likely score
2.34-0.88Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Guadalajara68%1.48
  • Draw19%5.39
  • Necaxa14%7.21

Double chance

  • Guadalajara or draw86%1.16
  • Guadalajara or Necaxa81%1.23
  • Draw or Necaxa32%3.08

Goals

  • Over 2.562%1.60
  • Under 2.538%2.66

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.90
  • No47%2.12

Match preview

The model makes Guadalajara clear favourites, with a 68% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 19% and a win for Necaxa at 14%.

Expected goals from the model: Guadalajara 2.34, Necaxa 0.88. The single most likely score is 2-0 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.

Guadalajara have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DDLDW).

Necaxa have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LDLLL).

In their last 5 league meetings Guadalajara won 2, Necaxa won 2 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-011%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-010%
  • 3-09%
  • 1-18%

Guadalajara form

WDLDD
  • Dvs Tigres UANL1-12026-10-17
  • Dat Atlas1-12026-10-11
  • Lvs Querétaro0-22026-09-26
  • Dat Club América2-22026-09-20
  • Wvs Pumas UNAM3-02026-09-14

Necaxa form

LLLDL
  • Lvs Atlas0-22026-10-17
  • Dat Pachuca3-32026-10-11
  • Lvs Club América2-42026-09-28
  • Lat Atlético San Luis1-32026-09-19
  • Lvs Puebla0-12026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-04-23Necaxa 0-0 Guadalajara
  • 2025-09-24Guadalajara 3-1 Necaxa
  • 2025-01-18Necaxa 3-2 Guadalajara
  • 2024-10-23Guadalajara 3-2 Necaxa
  • 2024-02-21Necaxa 1-0 Guadalajara

More Liga MX predictions

All matches ›

This match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.