Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Guadalajara vs Atlante prediction

Mexico · Liga MX · 01 November 2026

Guadalajara3rd · 26 pts
4 - 2Full time
Atlante16th · 14 pts
GuadalajaraDrawAtlante
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Guadalajara to win (63%)
Our predictionGuadalajara to winStrong pick
63%Probability
1.60Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.83-0.99Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Guadalajara63%1.60
  • Draw21%4.76
  • Atlante16%6.13

Double chance

  • Guadalajara or draw84%1.19
  • Guadalajara or Atlante79%1.27
  • Draw or Atlante37%2.68

Goals

  • Over 2.553%1.87
  • Under 2.547%2.15

Both teams to score

  • Yes52%1.91
  • No48%2.10

Match in numbers

This season, Guadalajara at home and Atlante away

Guadalajara (home)Atlante (away)
Matches77
Points per game1.861.14
Goals scored per game1.571.00
Goals conceded per game1.001.43
Shots on target per game5.54.9
Shots on target conceded4.34.3
Clean sheets43%14%
Over 2.5 goals29%29%
Both teams scored29%57%
  • Guadalajara: 3rd in the table; the model rates their attack 4th and their defence 1st in the league.
  • Atlante: 16th in the table; the model rates their attack 10th and their defence 14th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Guadalajara matches: 2 of 3 correct.
  • Our predictions for Atlante matches: 1 of 3 correct.

Match preview

The model makes Guadalajara clear favourites at 63%. The draw is rated at 21% and a win for Atlante at 16%.

At home this season Guadalajara average 1.86 points and 1.6 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Atlante take 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Guadalajara manage 5.5 per home game and Atlante 4.9 per away game.

Atlante sit 16th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 11th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.

Expected goals from the model: Guadalajara 1.83, Atlante 0.99. The single most likely score is 1-0 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 53%.

Most likely scores

  • 1-011%
  • 1-111%
  • 2-010%
  • 2-110%
  • 0-16%

Guadalajara form

LDDWW
  • Wat Monterrey1-02026-10-25
  • Wvs Necaxa1-02026-10-21
  • Dvs Tigres UANL1-12026-10-17
  • Dat Atlas1-12026-10-11
  • Lvs Querétaro0-22026-09-26

Atlante form

WLLWL
  • Lvs Atlético San Luis0-12026-10-24
  • Wat Juárez1-02026-10-21
  • Lvs Pumas UNAM1-22026-10-17
  • Lat Querétaro0-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Monterrey4-22026-09-26

Head to head

  • No meetings in our data since 2020.

More Liga MX predictions

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Prediction made 2026-11-01 00:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.