Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Cruzeiro57%1.75
- Draw23%4.31
- Bahia20%5.12
Double chance
- Cruzeiro or draw80%1.24
- Cruzeiro or Bahia77%1.30
- Draw or Bahia43%2.34
Goals
- Over 2.557%1.74
- Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to score
- Yes56%1.79
- No44%2.26
Match in numbers
This season, Cruzeiro at home and Bahia away
| Cruzeiro (home) | Bahia (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 8 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.83 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.8 | 3.5 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.8 | 7.2 |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 62% |
- Cruzeiro have won their last 3 league matches.
- Cruzeiro: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 10th in the league.
- Bahia: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 9th and their defence 16th in the league.
- Our predictions for Cruzeiro matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Bahia matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Cruzeiro (57%), though Bahia win 20% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 23%.
At home this season Cruzeiro average 2.50 points and 1.8 goals per game, conceding 0.7. Away from home Bahia take 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.8 per game for Cruzeiro at home and 3.5 for Bahia on the road.
Current runs: Cruzeiro have won their last 3 league matches.
Bahia are 4th in the table while the model ranks them only 15th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.
The model expects 1.92 goals from Cruzeiro and 1.07 from Bahia; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10%, over 2.5 goals 57% and both teams to score 56%.
In their last 5 league meetings Cruzeiro won 3, Bahia won 1 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 1-010%
- 2-09%
- 3-16%
Cruzeiro form
- Wat Atlético Mineiro1-02026-10-29
- Wvs Remo1-02026-10-23
- Wat Grêmio4-22026-10-18
- Lat Red Bull Bragantino2-42026-10-13
- Wvs São Paulo2-02026-10-08
Bahia form
- Wvs São Paulo3-22026-10-29
- Dat Santos1-12026-10-25
- Lvs Flamengo0-32026-10-18
- Wvs Mirassol1-02026-10-11
- Lat Palmeiras0-12026-10-09
Head to head
- 2026-05-10Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro
- 2025-09-15Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro
- 2025-04-18Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia
- 2024-10-19Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia
- 2024-06-23Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro
More Brasileirão Série A predictions
All matches ›
Mirassol
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Chapecoense
Vasco da GamaPrediction made 2026-11-06 00:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.