Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 03 November 2026

Chapecoense19th · 12 pts
1 - 2Full time
Mirassol9th · 21 pts
ChapecoenseDrawMirassol
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Mirassol to win (49%)
Our predictionMirassol to winLean
49%Probability
2.03Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.15-1.49Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Chapecoense25%3.98
  • Draw26%3.91
  • Mirassol49%2.03

Double chance

  • Chapecoense or draw51%1.97
  • Chapecoense or Mirassol74%1.34
  • Draw or Mirassol75%1.34

Goals

  • Over 2.549%2.03
  • Under 2.551%1.97

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.90
  • No47%2.12

Match in numbers

This season, Chapecoense at home and Mirassol away

Chapecoense (home)Mirassol (away)
Matches68
Points per game1.170.75
Goals scored per game1.330.75
Goals conceded per game2.331.50
Shots on target per game3.72.9
Shots on target conceded4.85.4
Clean sheets17%0%
Over 2.5 goals83%25%
Both teams scored67%62%
  • Chapecoense: 19th in the table; the model rates their attack 20th and their defence 20th in the league.
  • Mirassol: 9th in the table; the model rates their attack 12th and their defence 11th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Chapecoense matches: 2 of 3 correct.
  • Our predictions for Mirassol matches: 2 of 3 correct.

Match preview

Mirassol have the edge at 49%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 26% and a win for Chapecoense at 25%.

At home this season Chapecoense average 1.17 points and 1.3 goals per game, conceding 2.3. Away from home Mirassol take 0.75 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Chapecoense manage 3.7 per home game and Mirassol 2.9 per away game.

Expected goals from the model: Chapecoense 1.15, Mirassol 1.49. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 49%.

They last met in the league on 2026-05-10: Mirassol 1-1 Chapecoense.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 0-111%
  • 1-29%
  • 1-08%
  • 0-28%

Chapecoense form

LLLWL
  • Lat Red Bull Bragantino0-32026-10-28
  • Wvs Fluminense2-12026-10-24
  • Lat Botafogo0-12026-10-17
  • Lvs Athletico Paranaense1-42026-10-12
  • Lat Vitória0-42026-10-07

Mirassol form

DLWDL
  • Lat Corinthians0-22026-10-30
  • Dvs São Paulo1-12026-10-24
  • Wvs Internacional2-02026-10-16
  • Lat Bahia0-12026-10-11
  • Dat Red Bull Bragantino1-12026-10-07

Head to head

  • 2026-05-10Mirassol 1-1 Chapecoense

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

All matches ›
MirassolAtlético MineiroSat 14 Nov ·
MirassolMatch result
43%
2.34Fair odds
Analysis
ChapecoenseVasco da GamaSat 14 Nov ·
Vasco da GamaMatch result
52%
1.92Fair odds
Analysis

Prediction made 2026-11-03 22:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.