Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 05 November 2026

Botafogo14th · 17 pts
1 - 0Full time
Atlético Mineiro5th · 26 pts
BotafogoDrawAtlético Mineiro
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Botafogo to win (43%)
Our predictionBotafogo to winOpen game
43%Probability
2.33Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.55-1.14Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Botafogo43%2.33
  • Draw28%3.63
  • Atlético Mineiro29%3.39

Double chance

  • Botafogo or draw71%1.42
  • Botafogo or Atlético Mineiro72%1.38
  • Draw or Atlético Mineiro57%1.75

Goals

  • Over 2.550%1.98
  • Under 2.550%2.02

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.88
  • No47%2.14

Match in numbers

This season, Botafogo at home and Atlético Mineiro away

Botafogo (home)Atlético Mineiro (away)
Matches96
Points per game1.441.00
Goals scored per game1.221.33
Goals conceded per game1.111.67
Shots on target per game6.44.0
Shots on target conceded4.96.2
Clean sheets33%17%
Over 2.5 goals44%67%
Both teams scored67%67%
  • Botafogo: 14th in the table; the model rates their attack 7th and their defence 14th in the league.
  • Atlético Mineiro: 5th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 7th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Botafogo matches: 2 of 3 correct.
  • Our predictions for Atlético Mineiro matches: 2 of 3 correct.

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Botafogo 43%, draw 28%, Atlético Mineiro 29%.

At home this season Botafogo average 1.44 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 1.1. Away from home Atlético Mineiro take 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Botafogo manage 6.4 per home game and Atlético Mineiro 4.0 per away game.

Expected goals from the model: Botafogo 1.55, Atlético Mineiro 1.14. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

In their last 5 league meetings Botafogo won 2, Atlético Mineiro won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-011%
  • 2-19%
  • 2-08%
  • 0-18%

Botafogo form

LDWLL
  • Lat Remo1-22026-10-29
  • Lat Internacional0-32026-10-24
  • Wvs Chapecoense1-02026-10-17
  • Dat Coritiba1-12026-10-12
  • Lvs Vasco da Gama1-22026-10-07

Atlético Mineiro form

DWWLL
  • Lvs Cruzeiro0-12026-10-29
  • Lat Flamengo2-32026-10-26
  • Wvs Coritiba1-02026-10-17
  • Wvs Santos2-12026-10-11
  • Dat Athletico Paranaense2-22026-10-08

Head to head

  • 2026-05-10Atlético Mineiro 1-1 Botafogo
  • 2025-09-20Botafogo 1-0 Atlético Mineiro
  • 2025-04-20Atlético Mineiro 1-0 Botafogo
  • 2024-11-21Atlético Mineiro 0-0 Botafogo
  • 2024-07-08Botafogo 3-0 Atlético Mineiro

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

All matches ›
MirassolAtlético MineiroSat 14 Nov ·
MirassolMatch result
43%
2.34Fair odds
Analysis
ChapecoenseVasco da GamaSat 14 Nov ·
Vasco da GamaMatch result
52%
1.92Fair odds
Analysis

Prediction made 2026-11-05 00:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.