Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Athletico Paranaense54%1.87
- Draw24%4.10
- Vasco da Gama22%4.53
Double chance
- Athletico Paranaense or draw78%1.28
- Athletico Paranaense or Vasco da Gama76%1.32
- Draw or Vasco da Gama46%2.15
Goals
- Over 2.554%1.87
- Under 2.546%2.15
Both teams to score
- Yes55%1.83
- No45%2.21
Match in numbers
This season, Athletico Paranaense at home and Vasco da Gama away
| Athletico Paranaense (home) | Vasco da Gama (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.67 | 0.71 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.8 | 4.1 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 43% |
- Athletico Paranaense: 7th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 9th in the league.
- Vasco da Gama: 11th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 12th in the league.
- Our predictions for Athletico Paranaense matches: 0 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Vasco da Gama matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Athletico Paranaense have the edge at 54%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 24% and a win for Vasco da Gama at 22%.
At home this season Athletico Paranaense average 1.50 points and 1.7 goals per game, conceding 1.5. Away from home Vasco da Gama take 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Athletico Paranaense manage 6.8 per home game and Vasco da Gama 4.1 per away game.
Expected goals from the model: Athletico Paranaense 1.71, Vasco da Gama 1.11. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 54%.
In their last 5 league meetings Athletico Paranaense won 2, Vasco da Gama won 2 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-010%
- 2-110%
- 2-09%
- 0-17%
Athletico Paranaense form
- Lat Grêmio0-22026-10-30
- Dat Vitória1-12026-10-24
- Lvs Palmeiras0-22026-10-17
- Wat Chapecoense4-12026-10-12
- Dvs Atlético Mineiro2-22026-10-08
Vasco da Gama form
- Lvs Flamengo1-42026-10-29
- Wvs Corinthians3-22026-10-24
- Lat São Paulo0-12026-10-18
- Dvs Remo0-02026-10-10
- Wat Botafogo2-12026-10-07
Head to head
- 2026-05-10Vasco da Gama 1-0 Athletico Paranaense
- 2024-08-27Vasco da Gama 2-1 Athletico Paranaense
- 2024-05-05Athletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco da Gama
- 2023-11-25Athletico Paranaense 0-0 Vasco da Gama
- 2023-07-23Vasco da Gama 0-2 Athletico Paranaense
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Vasco da GamaPrediction made 2026-11-04 22:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.