Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Arouca56%1.77
- Draw23%4.43
- Nacional21%4.76
Double chance
- Arouca or draw79%1.27
- Arouca or Nacional77%1.29
- Draw or Nacional44%2.29
Goals
- Over 2.551%1.97
- Under 2.549%2.03
Both teams to score
- Yes53%1.87
- No47%2.14
Match in numbers
This season, Arouca at home and Nacional away
| Arouca (home) | Nacional (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.25 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.0 | 2.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.0 | 6.8 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
- Arouca: 5th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 9th in the league.
- Nacional: 15th in the table; the model rates their attack 12th and their defence 13th in the league.
- Our predictions for Arouca matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Nacional matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Arouca have the edge at 56%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for Nacional at 21%.
At home this season Arouca average 2.25 points and 2.0 goals per game, conceding 0.8. Away from home Nacional take 0.25 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Arouca manage 5.0 per home game and Nacional 2.8 per away game.
Expected goals from the model: Arouca 1.58, Nacional 1.13. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 51%.
Arouca won all 4 of the last league meetings between the two.
Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-011%
- 2-19%
- 2-08%
- 0-18%
Arouca form
- Wat Alverca1-02026-10-24
- Wvs Estrela1-02026-10-11
- Dat Sporting CP2-22026-09-19
- Lvs Santa Clara1-22026-09-13
- Dat Estoril0-02026-09-07
Nacional form
- Wvs Sporting Braga1-02026-10-25
- Lat Rio Ave2-32026-10-11
- Lvs Famalicão0-42026-09-19
- Lvs Alverca1-32026-09-12
- Lat Sporting CP0-22026-09-05
Head to head
- 2026-02-21Arouca 3-0 Nacional
- 2025-09-20Nacional 1-2 Arouca
- 2025-02-01Nacional 1-2 Arouca
- 2024-08-25Arouca 1-0 Nacional
Prediction made 2026-11-01 15:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.