Vitória Guimarães vs Marítimo prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 23 October 2026

Vitória Guimarães15th · 5 pts
Fri 23 Oct
Marítimo11th · 8 pts
Vitória GuimarãesDrawMarítimo
Our predictionVitória Guimarães to winLean
54%Probability
1.84Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.66-1.00Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Vitória Guimarães54%1.84
  • Draw25%4.00
  • Marítimo21%4.83

Double chance

  • Vitória Guimarães or draw79%1.26
  • Vitória Guimarães or Marítimo75%1.33
  • Draw or Marítimo46%2.19

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.02
  • Under 2.550%1.98

Both teams to score

  • Yes51%1.96
  • No49%2.04

Match preview

Vitória Guimarães have the edge at 54%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Marítimo at 21%.

Expected goals from the model: Vitória Guimarães 1.66, Marítimo 1.00. The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Vitória Guimarães have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LDLDL).

Marítimo have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LDLLL).

In the table Vitória Guimarães are 15th with 5 points and Marítimo 11th with 8.

In their last 5 league meetings Vitória Guimarães won 4, Marítimo won 0 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-012%
  • 1-111%
  • 2-110%
  • 2-010%
  • 0-17%

Vitória Guimarães form

LDLDL
  • Lat Benfica0-22026-10-11
  • Dvs Moreirense1-12026-09-20
  • Lat Académico de Viseu1-22026-09-12
  • Dvs Casa Pia0-02026-09-06
  • Lat Sporting Braga0-12026-08-31

Marítimo form

LLLDL
  • Lvs Porto1-22026-10-10
  • Dat Gil Vicente1-12026-09-19
  • Lat Moreirense1-32026-09-14
  • Lvs Benfica0-32026-09-05
  • Lat Arouca1-22026-08-29

Head to head

  • 2023-04-29Marítimo 1-2 Vitória Guimarães
  • 2022-11-13Vitória Guimarães 1-0 Marítimo
  • 2022-03-13Marítimo 0-1 Vitória Guimarães
  • 2021-10-22Vitória Guimarães 2-1 Marítimo
  • 2021-05-16Marítimo 0-0 Vitória Guimarães

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.