Nacional vs Sporting Braga prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 25 October 2026

Nacional16th · 4 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Sporting Braga9th · 11 pts
NacionalDrawSporting Braga
Our predictionSporting Braga to winLean
57%Probability
1.77Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.04-1.69Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Nacional20%5.02
  • Draw23%4.26
  • Sporting Braga57%1.77

Double chance

  • Nacional or draw43%2.30
  • Nacional or Sporting Braga77%1.31
  • Draw or Sporting Braga80%1.25

Goals

  • Over 2.551%1.95
  • Under 2.549%2.06

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.90
  • No47%2.11

Match preview

Sporting Braga have the edge at 57%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for Nacional at 20%.

Expected goals from the model: Nacional 1.04, Sporting Braga 1.69. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 51%.

Nacional have won 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 league matches (LLLLL).

Sporting Braga have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDWL).

In the table Nacional are 16th with 4 points and Sporting Braga 9th with 11.

In their last 5 league meetings Nacional won 1, Sporting Braga won 4 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 0-111%
  • 1-210%
  • 0-29%
  • 1-07%

Nacional form

LLLLL
  • Lat Rio Ave2-32026-10-11
  • Lvs Famalicão0-42026-09-19
  • Lvs Alverca1-32026-09-12
  • Lat Sporting CP0-22026-09-05
  • Lvs Estrela2-32026-08-30

Sporting Braga form

LWDLL
  • Lvs Gil Vicente1-22026-10-19
  • Lvs Sporting CP1-32026-10-09
  • Dat Santa Clara0-02026-09-20
  • Wvs Estoril1-02026-09-14
  • Lat Estrela1-22026-09-10

Head to head

  • 2026-02-28Nacional 1-2 Sporting Braga
  • 2025-09-28Sporting Braga 0-1 Nacional
  • 2025-02-21Sporting Braga 1-0 Nacional
  • 2024-09-20Nacional 0-3 Sporting Braga
  • 2021-02-28Nacional 1-2 Sporting Braga

More Primeira Liga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.