Nacional vs Sporting Braga prediction
Nacional16th · 4 pts
Sporting Braga9th · 11 ptsBetting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Nacional20%5.02
- Draw23%4.26
- Sporting Braga57%1.77
Double chance
- Nacional or draw43%2.30
- Nacional or Sporting Braga77%1.31
- Draw or Sporting Braga80%1.25
Goals
- Over 2.551%1.95
- Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to score
- Yes53%1.90
- No47%2.11
Match preview
Sporting Braga have the edge at 57%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for Nacional at 20%.
Expected goals from the model: Nacional 1.04, Sporting Braga 1.69. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 51%.
Nacional have won 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 league matches (LLLLL).
Sporting Braga have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDWL).
In the table Nacional are 16th with 4 points and Sporting Braga 9th with 11.
In their last 5 league meetings Nacional won 1, Sporting Braga won 4 and 0 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 0-111%
- 1-210%
- 0-29%
- 1-07%
Nacional form
- Lat Rio Ave2-32026-10-11
- Lvs Famalicão0-42026-09-19
- Lvs Alverca1-32026-09-12
- Lat Sporting CP0-22026-09-05
- Lvs Estrela2-32026-08-30
Sporting Braga form
- Lvs Gil Vicente1-22026-10-19
- Lvs Sporting CP1-32026-10-09
- Dat Santa Clara0-02026-09-20
- Wvs Estoril1-02026-09-14
- Lat Estrela1-22026-09-10
Head to head
- 2026-02-28Nacional 1-2 Sporting Braga
- 2025-09-28Sporting Braga 0-1 Nacional
- 2025-02-21Sporting Braga 1-0 Nacional
- 2024-09-20Nacional 0-3 Sporting Braga
- 2021-02-28Nacional 1-2 Sporting Braga
More Primeira Liga predictions
All matches ›Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.