Estoril vs Moreirense prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 25 October 2026

Estoril18th · 2 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Moreirense12th · 8 pts
EstorilDrawMoreirense
Our predictionEstoril to winLean
46%Probability
2.19Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.54-1.06Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Estoril46%2.19
  • Draw28%3.61
  • Moreirense27%3.75

Double chance

  • Estoril or draw73%1.36
  • Estoril or Moreirense72%1.38
  • Draw or Moreirense54%1.84

Goals

  • Over 2.548%2.07
  • Under 2.552%1.93

Both teams to score

  • Yes51%1.95
  • No49%2.05

Match preview

Estoril have the edge at 46%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 28% and a win for Moreirense at 27%.

Expected goals from the model: Estoril 1.54, Moreirense 1.06. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 48%.

Estoril have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLLDL).

Moreirense have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LDWLL).

In the table Estoril are 18th with 2 points and Moreirense 12th with 8.

In their last 5 league meetings Estoril won 0, Moreirense won 2 and 3 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-012%
  • 2-19%
  • 2-09%
  • 0-18%

Estoril form

LDLLL
  • Lat Académico de Viseu1-22026-10-10
  • Lvs Casa Pia1-22026-09-20
  • Lat Sporting Braga0-12026-09-14
  • Dvs Arouca0-02026-09-07
  • Lat Benfica1-22026-08-31

Moreirense form

LLWDL
  • Lvs Gil Vicente0-12026-10-09
  • Dat Vitória Guimarães1-12026-09-20
  • Wvs Marítimo3-12026-09-14
  • Lvs Benfica0-42026-09-09
  • Lat Porto1-22026-09-04

Head to head

  • 2026-04-20Moreirense 1-0 Estoril
  • 2025-12-07Estoril 3-3 Moreirense
  • 2025-05-11Moreirense 2-2 Estoril
  • 2024-12-28Estoril 2-2 Moreirense
  • 2024-05-18Moreirense 2-1 Estoril

More Primeira Liga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.