Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction
Estrela10th · 10 pts
Casa Pia17th · 4 ptsBetting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Estrela50%1.99
- Draw27%3.68
- Casa Pia23%4.40
Double chance
- Estrela or draw77%1.29
- Estrela or Casa Pia73%1.37
- Draw or Casa Pia50%2.01
Goals
- Over 2.543%2.34
- Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to score
- Yes46%2.15
- No54%1.87
Match preview
Estrela have the edge at 50%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for Casa Pia at 23%.
Expected goals from the model: Estrela 1.44, Casa Pia 0.95. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 43%.
Estrela have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LLDWD).
Casa Pia have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LWLDL).
In the table Estrela are 10th with 10 points and Casa Pia 17th with 4.
In their last 5 league meetings Estrela won 3, Casa Pia won 2 and 0 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-013%
- 1-112%
- 2-010%
- 2-19%
- 0-19%
Estrela form
- Lat Arouca0-12026-10-11
- Lvs Académico de Viseu0-22026-09-20
- Dat Rio Ave3-32026-09-14
- Wvs Sporting Braga2-12026-09-10
- Dvs Famalicão2-22026-09-05
Casa Pia form
- Lvs Santa Clara0-12026-10-10
- Wat Estoril2-12026-09-20
- Lvs Porto1-42026-09-12
- Dat Vitória Guimarães0-02026-09-06
- Lvs Moreirense0-12026-08-30
Head to head
- 2026-03-20Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia
- 2025-11-01Casa Pia 3-5 Estrela
- 2025-02-09Casa Pia 1-0 Estrela
- 2024-08-31Estrela 0-1 Casa Pia
- 2024-03-08Estrela 3-1 Casa Pia
More Primeira Liga predictions
All matches ›Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.