Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 24 October 2026

Estrela10th · 10 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Casa Pia17th · 4 pts
EstrelaDrawCasa Pia
Our predictionEstrela to winLean
50%Probability
1.99Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.44-0.95Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Estrela50%1.99
  • Draw27%3.68
  • Casa Pia23%4.40

Double chance

  • Estrela or draw77%1.29
  • Estrela or Casa Pia73%1.37
  • Draw or Casa Pia50%2.01

Goals

  • Over 2.543%2.34
  • Under 2.557%1.75

Both teams to score

  • Yes46%2.15
  • No54%1.87

Match preview

Estrela have the edge at 50%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for Casa Pia at 23%.

Expected goals from the model: Estrela 1.44, Casa Pia 0.95. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 43%.

Estrela have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LLDWD).

Casa Pia have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LWLDL).

In the table Estrela are 10th with 10 points and Casa Pia 17th with 4.

In their last 5 league meetings Estrela won 3, Casa Pia won 2 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 1-112%
  • 2-010%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-19%

Estrela form

DWDLL
  • Lat Arouca0-12026-10-11
  • Lvs Académico de Viseu0-22026-09-20
  • Dat Rio Ave3-32026-09-14
  • Wvs Sporting Braga2-12026-09-10
  • Dvs Famalicão2-22026-09-05

Casa Pia form

LDLWL
  • Lvs Santa Clara0-12026-10-10
  • Wat Estoril2-12026-09-20
  • Lvs Porto1-42026-09-12
  • Dat Vitória Guimarães0-02026-09-06
  • Lvs Moreirense0-12026-08-30

Head to head

  • 2026-03-20Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia
  • 2025-11-01Casa Pia 3-5 Estrela
  • 2025-02-09Casa Pia 1-0 Estrela
  • 2024-08-31Estrela 0-1 Casa Pia
  • 2024-03-08Estrela 3-1 Casa Pia

More Primeira Liga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.