Alverca vs Arouca prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 24 October 2026

Alverca8th · 11 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Arouca5th · 14 pts
AlvercaDrawArouca
Our predictionAlverca to winOpen game
41%Probability
2.43Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.39-1.22Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Alverca41%2.43
  • Draw28%3.60
  • Arouca31%3.22

Double chance

  • Alverca or draw69%1.45
  • Alverca or Arouca72%1.39
  • Draw or Arouca59%1.70

Goals

  • Over 2.548%2.06
  • Under 2.552%1.94

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.90
  • No47%2.11

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Alverca 41%, draw 28%, Arouca 31%.

Expected goals from the model: Alverca 1.39, Arouca 1.22. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 48%.

Alverca have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWWLD).

Arouca have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WDLDW).

In the table Alverca are 8th with 11 points and Arouca 5th with 14.

In their last 2 league meetings Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-010%
  • 0-19%
  • 2-19%
  • 1-28%

Alverca form

DLWWW
  • Wat Famalicão4-12026-10-12
  • Wvs Rio Ave1-02026-09-19
  • Wat Nacional3-12026-09-12
  • Lvs Sporting Braga1-22026-09-05
  • Dvs Santa Clara1-12026-08-29

Arouca form

WDLDW
  • Wvs Estrela1-02026-10-11
  • Dat Sporting CP2-22026-09-19
  • Lvs Santa Clara1-22026-09-13
  • Dat Estoril0-02026-09-07
  • Wvs Marítimo2-12026-08-29

Head to head

  • 2026-04-24Alverca 2-1 Arouca
  • 2025-12-14Arouca 1-0 Alverca

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.