Alverca vs Arouca prediction
Alverca8th · 11 ptsSat 24 Oct
Arouca5th · 14 ptsAlvercaDrawArouca
Our predictionAlverca to winOpen game
41%Probability
2.43Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.39-1.22Expected goals
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Alverca41%2.43
- Draw28%3.60
- Arouca31%3.22
Double chance
- Alverca or draw69%1.45
- Alverca or Arouca72%1.39
- Draw or Arouca59%1.70
Goals
- Over 2.548%2.06
- Under 2.552%1.94
Both teams to score
- Yes53%1.90
- No47%2.11
Match preview
An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Alverca 41%, draw 28%, Arouca 31%.
Expected goals from the model: Alverca 1.39, Arouca 1.22. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 48%.
Alverca have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWWLD).
Arouca have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WDLDW).
In the table Alverca are 8th with 11 points and Arouca 5th with 14.
In their last 2 league meetings Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1 and 0 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-010%
- 0-19%
- 2-19%
- 1-28%
Alverca form
DLWWW
- Wat Famalicão4-12026-10-12
- Wvs Rio Ave1-02026-09-19
- Wat Nacional3-12026-09-12
- Lvs Sporting Braga1-22026-09-05
- Dvs Santa Clara1-12026-08-29
Arouca form
WDLDW
- Wvs Estrela1-02026-10-11
- Dat Sporting CP2-22026-09-19
- Lvs Santa Clara1-22026-09-13
- Dat Estoril0-02026-09-07
- Wvs Marítimo2-12026-08-29
Head to head
- 2026-04-24Alverca 2-1 Arouca
- 2025-12-14Arouca 1-0 Alverca
More Primeira Liga predictions
All matches ›Vitória GuimarãesMatch result
54%
1.84Fair odds
Analysis
EstrelaMatch result
50%
1.99Fair odds
Analysis
PortoMatch result
58%
1.73Fair odds
Analysis
EstorilMatch result
46%
2.19Fair odds
Analysis
Sporting BragaMatch result
57%
1.77Fair odds
Analysis
FamalicãoMatch result
45%
2.20Fair odds
Analysis
Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.