Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Sunderland34%2.97
- Draw27%3.74
- Chelsea40%2.53
Double chance
- Sunderland or draw60%1.65
- Sunderland or Chelsea73%1.37
- Draw or Chelsea66%1.51
Goals
- Over 2.555%1.83
- Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to score
- Yes58%1.73
- No42%2.37
Match in numbers
This season, Sunderland at home and Chelsea away
| Sunderland (home) | Chelsea (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.2 | 6.5 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
- Sunderland have gone 7 league matches without a win.
- Sunderland: 20th in the table; the model rates their attack 19th and their defence 8th in the league.
- Chelsea: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 13th in the league.
- Our predictions for Sunderland matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Chelsea matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Sunderland 34%, draw 27%, Chelsea 40%.
At home this season Sunderland average 1.00 points and 0.2 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Chelsea take 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Sunderland manage 3.5 per home game and Chelsea 5.0 per away game.
Form lines: Sunderland have gone 7 league matches without a win.
Expected goals from the model: Sunderland 1.39, Chelsea 1.48. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 55%.
Sunderland won both of the last league meetings between the two.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-29%
- 0-19%
- 1-08%
- 2-18%
Sunderland form
- Lat Coventry City1-32026-10-31
- Dvs Leeds United0-02026-10-25
- Lat AFC Bournemouth0-22026-10-18
- Lvs Brighton & Hove Albion0-22026-10-10
- Lat Manchester City3-52026-09-20
Chelsea form
- Wvs Manchester United2-02026-10-31
- Lvs Tottenham Hotspur0-22026-10-24
- Wat Everton2-02026-10-17
- Wvs AFC Bournemouth5-12026-10-10
- Lat Brentford0-32026-09-18
Head to head
- 2026-05-24Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea
- 2025-10-25Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland
Prediction made 2026-11-08 13:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.