Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 26 October 2026

Santa Clara4th · 18 pts
Mon 26 Oct
Benfica2nd · 19 pts
Santa ClaraDrawBenfica
Our predictionBenfica to winStrong pick
61%Probability
1.65Fair odds
0-1Likely score
0.81-1.51Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Santa Clara16%6.23
  • Draw23%4.27
  • Benfica61%1.65

Double chance

  • Santa Clara or draw39%2.53
  • Santa Clara or Benfica77%1.31
  • Draw or Benfica84%1.19

Goals

  • Over 2.541%2.45
  • Under 2.559%1.69

Both teams to score

  • Yes43%2.33
  • No57%1.75

Match preview

The model makes Benfica clear favourites, with a 61% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 23% and a win for Santa Clara at 16%.

Expected goals from the model: Santa Clara 0.81, Benfica 1.51. The single most likely score is 0-1 (15%), and the chance of three or more goals is 41%.

Santa Clara have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDWWD).

Benfica have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLWWW).

In the table Santa Clara are 4th with 18 points and Benfica 2nd with 19.

In their last 5 league meetings Santa Clara won 0, Benfica won 4 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 0-115%
  • 1-112%
  • 0-211%
  • 0-010%
  • 1-29%

Santa Clara form

DWWDW
  • Wat Casa Pia1-02026-10-10
  • Dvs Sporting Braga0-02026-09-20
  • Wat Arouca2-12026-09-13
  • Wvs Rio Ave4-02026-09-06
  • Dat Alverca1-12026-08-29

Benfica form

WWWLW
  • Wvs Vitória Guimarães2-02026-10-11
  • Lat Porto1-32026-09-20
  • Wvs Gil Vicente3-12026-09-13
  • Wat Moreirense4-02026-09-09
  • Wat Marítimo3-02026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-02-13Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica
  • 2025-09-12Benfica 1-1 Santa Clara
  • 2025-02-15Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica
  • 2024-09-14Benfica 4-1 Santa Clara
  • 2023-05-27Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara

More Primeira Liga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.