Roma vs Cagliari prediction

Italy · Serie A · 27 October 2026

Roma3rd · 17 pts
Tue 27 Oct
Cagliari7th · 13 pts
RomaDrawCagliari
Our predictionRoma to winStrong pick
70%Probability
1.43Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.85-0.80Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Roma70%1.43
  • Draw19%5.40
  • Cagliari11%8.73

Double chance

  • Roma or draw89%1.13
  • Roma or Cagliari81%1.23
  • Draw or Cagliari30%3.34

Goals

  • Over 2.549%2.02
  • Under 2.551%1.98

Both teams to score

  • Yes46%2.16
  • No54%1.86

Match preview

The model makes Roma clear favourites, with a 70% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 19% and a win for Cagliari at 11%.

Expected goals from the model: Roma 1.85, Cagliari 0.80. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 49%.

Roma have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDDWW).

Cagliari have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWWW).

In the table Roma are 3rd with 17 points and Cagliari 7th with 13.

In their last 5 league meetings Roma won 3, Cagliari won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 2-012%
  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%
  • 3-07%

Roma form

WWDDW
  • Wvs Genoa2-02026-10-17
  • Dat Como0-02026-10-11
  • Dvs Inter Milan2-22026-09-19
  • Wat Torino2-02026-09-14
  • Wvs Atalanta2-12026-09-05

Cagliari form

WWWDL
  • Lat Monza0-42026-10-19
  • Dvs Juventus1-12026-10-11
  • Wat Udinese1-02026-09-19
  • Wat Atalanta2-12026-09-12
  • Wvs Lecce1-02026-09-07

Head to head

  • 2026-02-09Roma 2-0 Cagliari
  • 2025-12-07Cagliari 1-0 Roma
  • 2025-03-16Roma 1-0 Cagliari
  • 2024-08-18Cagliari 0-0 Roma
  • 2024-02-05Roma 4-0 Cagliari

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.