Napoli vs Roma prediction

Italy · Serie A · 24 October 2026

Napoli9th · 10 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Roma3rd · 17 pts
NapoliDrawRoma
Our predictionNapoli to winOpen game
37%Probability
2.69Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.25-1.13Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Napoli37%2.69
  • Draw29%3.41
  • Roma33%2.99

Double chance

  • Napoli or draw67%1.50
  • Napoli or Roma71%1.42
  • Draw or Roma63%1.59

Goals

  • Over 2.542%2.36
  • Under 2.558%1.73

Both teams to score

  • Yes48%2.09
  • No52%1.92

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Napoli 37%, draw 29%, Roma 33%.

Expected goals from the model: Napoli 1.25, Roma 1.13. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 42%.

Napoli have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LWDWL).

Roma have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDDWW).

In the table Napoli are 9th with 10 points and Roma 3rd with 17.

In their last 5 league meetings Napoli won 2, Roma won 0 and 3 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 1-012%
  • 0-111%
  • 0-09%
  • 2-18%

Napoli form

LWDWL
  • Lat Venezia0-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Frosinone3-02026-10-10
  • Dat Fiorentina1-12026-09-20
  • Wvs Bologna1-02026-09-13
  • Lat Inter Milan2-32026-09-05

Roma form

WWDDW
  • Wvs Genoa2-02026-10-17
  • Dat Como0-02026-10-11
  • Dvs Inter Milan2-22026-09-19
  • Wat Torino2-02026-09-14
  • Wvs Atalanta2-12026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-02-15Napoli 2-2 Roma
  • 2025-11-30Roma 0-1 Napoli
  • 2025-02-02Roma 1-1 Napoli
  • 2024-11-24Napoli 1-0 Roma
  • 2024-04-28Napoli 2-2 Roma

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.