Lazio vs Parma prediction

Italy · Serie A · 24 October 2026

Lazio2nd · 19 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Parma19th · 4 pts
LazioDrawParma
Our predictionLazio to winStrong pick
65%Probability
1.54Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.52-0.81Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Lazio65%1.54
  • Draw21%4.78
  • Parma14%6.99

Double chance

  • Lazio or draw86%1.17
  • Lazio or Parma79%1.26
  • Draw or Parma35%2.84

Goals

  • Over 2.541%2.43
  • Under 2.559%1.70

Both teams to score

  • Yes43%2.32
  • No57%1.76

Match preview

The model makes Lazio clear favourites, with a 65% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 21% and a win for Parma at 14%.

Expected goals from the model: Lazio 1.52, Parma 0.81. The single most likely score is 1-0 (15%), and the chance of three or more goals is 41%.

Lazio have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWWDW).

Parma have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLWLD).

In the table Lazio are 2nd with 19 points and Parma 19th with 4.

In their last 5 league meetings Lazio won 2, Parma won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-015%
  • 1-112%
  • 2-011%
  • 0-010%
  • 2-19%

Lazio form

WDWWW
  • Wat Juventus3-02026-10-18
  • Wvs Monza3-12026-10-11
  • Wat Venezia2-02026-09-19
  • Dvs AC Milan2-22026-09-12
  • Wat Udinese2-12026-09-07

Parma form

DLWLL
  • Lvs Torino0-32026-10-19
  • Lat Inter Milan0-32026-10-10
  • Wvs Genoa2-12026-09-20
  • Lat Como1-22026-09-14
  • Dvs Monza1-12026-09-06

Head to head

  • 2026-04-04Lazio 1-1 Parma
  • 2025-12-13Parma 0-1 Lazio
  • 2025-04-28Lazio 2-2 Parma
  • 2024-12-01Parma 3-1 Lazio
  • 2021-05-12Lazio 1-0 Parma

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.